It is the first round of the College Football Playoff. The two teams that defeated Notre Dame this year are prepared to face off. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Miami-Texas A&M CFP first round prediction and pick.
Miami is 10-2 on the season. They opened up 5-0, with wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida State. They would lose in a tight game to Louisville, falling 24-21. The Canes won the next game, defeating Stanford 42-7. Still, the team took another L to SMU 26-20. Since then, Miami has won four straight, with a dominating win over Pitt 38-7. They were tied for the second spot in the conference with SMU, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Duke, but lost the tiebreaker to Duke, who went on to win the ACC.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M ended the season at 11-1 and 7-1 in conference play. They opened up the season 11-0. This includes wins over Notre Dame, LSU, and Missouri, but they did not face the best teams in the SEC. To end the season, the Aggies faced off with Texas. Texas A&M started strong, leading 10-3 at the end of the first half. Still, the Longhorns dominated the second half. They scored on four of their first five drives in the second half, and then picked off Marcel Reed twice on the way to a 27-17 win. The loss would cost them a spot in the SEC Championship, but they still got a spot in the playoffs.
The two teams have faced five times in their histories. The last was a 48-33 win for Miami in 2023. The Aggies took the matchup in 2022, while Miami won in 2008 and 2007. The first meeting was in 1944, where A&M won 70-14.
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds
Miami: +3.5 (-115)
Texas A&M: -3.5 (-105)
Over: 49.5 (-108)
Under: 49.5 (-112)
Miami vs. Texas A&M Key Injuries
Miami- CB Keionte Scott (expected to play), WR CJ Daniels (Questionable), CB O.J. Frederique (Questionable), DL Ahmad Moten (Questionable)
Texas A&M- HB Le'Veon Moss (Questionable), S Bryce Anderson (Questionable), QB Marcel Reed (Probable)
Miami vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends
– Miami is 7-5 against the spread this year, but 2-2 on the road.
– Texas A&M is just 5-7 against the spread this year, and 2-5 at home this season.
– When an underdog, Miami has covered in the only chance, beating Notre Dame in the first game of the year.
– When the favorite, Texas A&M, is 4-7 against the spread, but did win as their only time as an underdog.
– The under has been the right side for Miami games in seven of 11 matchups, but is just 3-3 in the last six games.
– The over has hit in eight of 12 games for Texas A&M.
Keys to Miami vs. Texas A&M Matchup
For Miami, the key is to get the passing game going. The offense has been stellar this year. They are 18th in points per game while sitting 29th in yards per game. The Hurricanes are just 74th in rushing yards per gsme while 24th in passing. Carson Beck leads the offense for Miami. He has completed 263 of 252 passes this year, good for 74.7 percent completion. He has thrown 25 touchdowns while throwing ten interceptions. Beck has also found the endzone once on the ground. The Miami quarterback has also been great as of late. In the last three games, he has thrown for 878 yards with ten touchdowns. He has been intercepted once and sacked three times.
Meanwhile, the Texas A&M defense has been solid. They are 53rd in opponent points per game and 28th in opponents' yards per game. They have been solid against the run, sitting 42nd, but are even better against the pass, sitting 25th. The passing game is going to be a major component of the Miami game, but if they can get pressure on Carson Beck, Texas A&M can make it difficult. Cashius Howell has 11.5 sacks this year while also breaking up six passes and forcing a fumble.
The Texas A&M offense has also been stellar. They are 15th in the nation in points per game while sitting 16th in yards per game. They are 29th in the running game and 27th in the passing game. The offense is led by Marcel Reed. Reed has been nothing short of stellar this year, passing for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns. He has also been picked off ten times. Reed has run for 466 yards and found the endzone six times on the ground.
Regardless, the Miami defense has been stellar this year. They are sixth in opponent points per game while sitting 11th in opponent yards per game. They are seventh against the run while sitting 30th against the pass. Defensive back Jakobe Thomas will lead the way. He is second on the team in tackles, while having three sacks, four pass breakups, four interceptions with a touchdown, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. If Miami is going to slow down the Texas A&M offense, it will start with Thomas.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
When the spread is less than seven points, Texas A&M is just 4-3, but Miami is 3-0. Still, there are a couple of factors that could decide the game. The first is turnovers. Miami is 23rd in the nation in turnover margin and is 26th in takeaways per game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 102nd in turnover margin and 113th in takeaways per game. Meanwhile, the red zone will also be a factor. Miami has been dominant in the red zone, sitting seventh in the nation in red zone scoring, while sitting 98th on the defensive side. Still, Texas A&M is 73rd in red zone scoring, while sitting 134th on defense. Those two factors will decide the game as Miami covers.
Final Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick: Miami +3.5 (-115) and Over 49.5 (-108)
