It is a rematch in the College Football Playoff as Alabama faces Oklahoma. There have been questions about whether or not Alabama belonged in the CFP, but they will be looking to show that they do. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Alabama-Oklahoma CFP first round prediction and pick.
Alabama enters the game at 10-3 on the season. They opened up with a 31-17 loss to Florida State before going on a long win streak. They won eight straight games, including victories over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. The winning streak would come to an end with a two-point loss to Oklahoma. They finished the regular season with a win over Eastern Illinois and then a seven-point victory over Auburn. They played in the SEC Championship game and got dominated by Georgia. The Tide would lose the game 28-7.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 10-2 on the year. They opened up 5-0 with wins over Michigan and Auburn, before falling 23-6 to rival Texas. After a win over South Carolina, the Sooners lost again, falling to Ole Miss 34-26. They ended the season with four straight wins, including three over teams that were ranked at the time. The Sooners defeated Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU, with the Tennessee and Alabama games on the road, to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
It was a tight first game between the two, with Alabama leading late into the third. The Sooners forced a fumble and then turned that into a field goal to take the lead. The defense would hold from there, winning the game 23-21
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds
Alabama: -1.5 (-105)
Oklahoma: +1.5 (-115)
Over: 40.5 (-108)
Under: 40.5 (-112)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Key Injuries
Alabama- DB Kameron Howard (Out), LB Jah-Marien Latham (Out), DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. (Out), Edge LT Overton (Out), RB Kevin Riley (Out), DL Jeremiah Beaman (Out), TE Josh Cuevas (Questionable), TE Danny Lewis Jr. (Questionable)
Oklahoma- DB Gentry Williams (Out), DB Kendel Dolby (Out), DB Jeremiah Newcombe (Out), DL Troy Everett (Out), OL Jake Maikkula (Questionable), RB Javontate Barnes (Probably)
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Betting Trends
– Alabama is 8-5 against the spread this year, but 2-3 on the road.
– Oklahoma is 6-6 against the spread this year, and 2-5 at home this season.
– When a favorite, Alabama has covered in seven of 11 games.
– When the underdog, Oklahoma, is 2-1 against the spread, and also 2-1 straight up.
– The under has been the right side for Alabama games in eight of 13 matchups, including five straight
– The over has hit just twice in the 12 Oklahoma games this year, and not in the last three.
Keys to Alabama vs. Oklahoma Matchup
The key for Alabama is going to be getting Ty Simpson going. The Alabama offense is 41st in the nation in points per game and 72nd in yards per game this year. They have been horrible on the ground, ranking 123rd, but the Tide are expected to have Jam Miller back to help. Still, the passing game has been great, sitting 18th in the nation in passing yards per game. Simpson has led the offense this year. The quarterback has completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,268 yards. He has also thrown 26 touchdowns and been intercepted just five times. He also has two touchdowns on the ground. Simpson has not been great in the last three weeks, passing for just 481 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He never got going in the game with Georgia, which ground the Alabama offense to a halt.
Oklahoma has a solid defense. They are seventh in the nation in opponent points per game and tenth in opponent yards per game. The team is 39th against the run and 44th against the pass. Peyton Bowen has been great for the secondary. He has seven pass breakups and two interceptions. If he can cover Germie Bernard solo and allow two players on Ryan Williams, the defense may be able to slow down Simpson.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma will need to be strong on the ground. The offense is 74th in the nation in points per game and 91st in yards per game. They are 100th in the running game and 82nd in the passing game. John Mateer has not been great since his injury earlier this year. Overall, he has run for 416 yards and seven touchdowns, but has just two touchdowns on the ground since returning from injury. Troy Blaylock has been the top guy on the ground this year, running for 444 yards and four touchdowns. He was not great in the first game with Alabama, running for just one yard before injury, but he did rebound against LSU.
The Alabama defense has been stellar this season. They are 15th in opponent points per game and 13th in opponent yards per game. They have been much better against the pass, sitting ninth in opponent yards per game. Still, the team is 41st in opponent rushing yards per game. Justin Jefferson leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss this year, while also forcing a fumble, breaking up five passes, and having an interception. If he can get into the backfield and slow down the Oklahoma run game, while also spying on Mateer, they could have a solid game.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
This is going to be a right game. Alabama is coming off a disaster against Georgia and has not been the same since the loss to Oklahoma. While they were solid against Eastern Illinois, they struggled against Auburn as well. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has been firing on all cylinders as of late. Still, the offense has been hit and miss. While they put up 33 points against Tennessee, it has been just 17 in each of the last two games. Alabama will be fighting to show they belong in the playoffs, but the one-dimensional offense is going to be their undoing again.
Final Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick: Oklahoma +1.5 (-115) and Under 40.5 (-112)
