Each holding a 7–7 record in 2025, division rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers will look for a crucial victory at Bank of America Stadium in their Week 16 rematch. The Panthers are coming off a heartbreaking 20–17 loss to the Saints at Caesars Superdome on a last-second field goal. They coughed up a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC South.
That opening was created by the Buccaneers themselves. They were stunned 29–28 by the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium on Thursday Night Football. Tampa surrendered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead on yet another game-winning kick. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans connected six times for 132 yards. However, a season-high 476 yards allowed on defense proved costly. These teams met twice last season. Tampa Bay won 26–23 in overtime in Week 13 and routed Carolina 48–14 in Week 17. Mayfield threw for 594 yards and six touchdowns across the two matchups.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers betting odds
Buccaneers: -3, -108
Panthers: +3, -112
Over: 45.5, -110
Under: 45.5, -110
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs. Panthers key injuries for Week 16
Buccaneers: LB Lavonte David (Knee), TE Cade Otton (Knee), WR Mike Evans (Collarbone), CB Zyon McCollum (Hip), OL Ben Bredeson (Knee)
Panthers: OL Damien Lewis (Illness), OL Taylor Moton (Back), WR David Moore (Elbow), OL Ikem Ekwonu (Knee), DL Tershawn Wharton (Hamstring)
Buccaneers vs. Panthers betting trends
The Buccaneers and Panthers have played each other 30 times from 2010 onwards. The Buccaneers have had the better of their head-to-head matchup, 17-13, over those games. Tampa Bay has also prevailed in their last five meetings dating back to Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. Interestingly enough, both teams have averaged the exact same points per game (21.8) in all those matchups. Entering Week 16, both of these teams are aiming to bounce back from losses. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last six games, while the Panthers were upset by the Saints.
Several betting trends do favor Tampa Bay despite last week’s setback:
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games following a Division game.
- The Buccaneers have won nine of their last 10 games against the Panthers.
- Each of the Buccaneers' last five games in December have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Panthers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games against NFC South opponents.
2025 records:
Tampa Bay, 7-7 straight up, 5-9 ATS; Carolina, 7-7 straight up, 8-6 ATS
Over/Under
Tampa Bay 8-6; Carolina, 7-7
Keys to Buccaneers vs. Panthers matchup
Buccaneers:
Establish the run:
Tampa Bay’s offense is at its best when it’s balanced. Leaning on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White can control tempo and limit defensive exposure. It can also keep Mayfield out of tough passing situations.
Force turnovers:
The Buccaneers lead the NFL in forced fumbles. That aggressiveness must translate into game-changing plays. Extra possessions could be decisive in a tight divisional contest.
Red zone efficiency:
Missed opportunities doomed Tampa Bay in Week 15. Turning red zone trips into touchdowns rather than field goals is essential against a Panthers team that thrives on close games.
Panthers:
Pressure Mayfield:
Carolina ranks near the bottom of the league in quarterback pressure. That's a troubling trend against an aggressive Tampa Bay passing attack. Generating disruption up front is vital to prevent deep connections to Evans.
Win the turnover battle:
Both teams have shown vulnerability with ball security. Carolina must capitalize on any Buccaneers mistakes. They need to take a page off what Atlanta did last week when a Mayfield interception shifted momentum.
Limit Mike Evans:
Evans looked fully healthy in his return. He torched coverage for 132 yards. Jaycee Horn faces a difficult assignment and must limit explosive plays to keep Carolina competitive.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction and pick
This is a difficult game to project between two inconsistent teams that still control their destiny in the NFC South. Carolina has home-field advantage and urgency. That said, the Buccaneers' overall talent level and recent offensive health give them an edge. The extra rest from playing on Thursday night should also aid the Buccaneers’ preparation for this pivotal matchup.
Expect points, momentum swings, and late drama. It's all fitting for an NFC South showdown.
Final score prediction: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 24
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Over/Under: Over 45.5
