The NBA enjoyed a much-needed breather on Saturday, the entire league getting the day off following a frantic Friday night in which all 30 teams took the floor. There's not much more rest coming for the weary, either—at least among the 20 teams that have already punched their ticket to the postseason, the vast majority of them still fighting for seeding as the last day of the 2023-24 dawns.
Every team in the league will play its regular-season finale on Sunday. The play-in tournament tips off April 16th, ending three days later to give way to the playoffs a week from Saturday.
Here's everything you need to know about postseason seeding scenarios league-wide entering what promises to be a wild final day of the 82-game grind.
Eastern Conference postseason seeding scenarios
No. 1 seed: Boston Celtics
The Celtics clinched not just the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but also home-court advantage in a potential NBA Finals matchup over a week ago. Joe Mazzulla's team has been a true juggernaut during the regular season, posting a 63-18 record and historic +11.7 net rating—best in the league since the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls' mark—entering Sunday's meaningless game against the Washington Wizards.
Anything less than raising banner No. 18 come June would be a major disappointment for Boston.
Nos. 2, 3 or 4 seeds: Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bucks and Knicks are in lock-step at 49-32 heading into Sunday, but facing drastically different straits—and not just because Giannis Antetokounmpo's health status is still uncertain in wake of the calf strain he suffered on April 9th.
Shorthanded Milwaukee heads to Florida to meet the Orlando Magic in the regular season finale, who will be vying for a win to ensure they avoid the play-in fray. New York, on the other hand, will play early host at Madison Square Garden to the Chicago Bulls, already set to face the Atlanta Hawks at United Center in the 9-10 play-in game.
The Cavs, 48-33, earned their biggest win of the season on Friday, outlasting the Indiana Pacers in a heated, back-and-forth affair to ensure they can't drop to the play-in tournament. Donovan Mitchell and the wine-and-gold play the bottom-dwelling Charlotte Hornets in Cleveland on Sunday, virtually assured of a victory.
Wins for the Bucks or Knicks will prevent the Cavaliers from nabbing the 2-seed. Milwaukee holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over New York should the teams finish tied in the standings, while Cleveland owns the tiebreaker over the Bucks due to division record and the Knicks by virtue of winning the season series.
If all three teams finish with the same record, the Cavs would get the second seed because they'll have won the Central Division, followed by Milwaukee and New York in third and fourth.
Nos. 5, 6, 7 or 8 seeds: Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat
Did you think the race for No. 2 in the East was complicated? Take a deep breath before getting into how the conference's next four postseason seeds will be decided, a race that could ultimately carry more long-term playoff implications than any other across the league.
Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia are all 46-35. The Hawks and Brooklyn Nets will have nothing to play for on Sunday, all but guaranteeing wins for the Pacers and Sixers, respectively.
The Magic will have the leg up on Indiana and Philadelphia regardless if they beat the Bucks, though, because they will have won the Southeast Division. A loss to Milwaukee risks Orlando dipping down to the play-in tournament due to Jamahl Mosley's team not owning tiebreakers over the Sixers and Heat.
Indiana just needs a win over Atlanta to finish in the top-six, with a potential Magic loss lifting Tyrese Haliburton and company to fifth. A loss coupled with wins by Orlando and Philadelphia would push the Pacers to the play-in, where they could even be forced to play the 7-8 game on the road if the Magic lose and Sixers and Heat win their finales, setting up a battle with Orlando at Kia Center.
All Philadelphia needs to stay above the play-in gauntlet is a victory over Brooklyn and wins from the Pacers and Heat, both of whom are heavily favored in their last games of the season. Assuming they beat the Nets, the Sixers need a Magic loss to get the 5-seed and will otherwise finish sixth.
Miami, meanwhile, hosts the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, whose sixth-best lottery odds are already set in stone. To finish fifth or sixth and dodge the play-in, Miami must beat the Raptors while Orlando falls to Milwaukee and one of the Pacers or Sixers lose.
Got all that? Maybe not, but it's time to move on.
No. 9 seed: Chicago Bulls
The consistently mediocre Bulls have been locked into ninth-place in the East, six games behind the Heat and three above the Hawks. They'll host Atlanta from United Center on Wednesday night, needing a victory to face the loser of the 7-8 game with a playoff berth on the line.
No. 10 seed: Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta clinched a play-in berth with an April 4th win over the Detroit Pistons, a small victory considering the late-season absence of Trae Young. The Hawks' star point guard is back in action and set to play in the Windy City, but they'll be without the injured Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, sapping Quin Snyder's team of size, athleticism and stylistic versatility up front.
Western Conference seeding scenarios
No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds: Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
The defending-champion Nuggets' last-second loss to the Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on Friday threw the race for the top seed in the West back into a dead heat. Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Denver are all 56-25 entering the last day of the regular season, and that they share a home in the Northwest Division makes tiebreaker scenarios all the more convoluted.
Season-ending wins for the Thunder and Nuggets are close to sure-things. Oklahoma City hosts the Dallas Mavericks, who've already clinched the five-seed and rested Luka Doncic on Friday, while Denver travels to face the Memphis Grizzlies, their seventh-best lottery odds already cemented. Minnesota gets a much tougher draw, facing the Phoenix Suns on the road in a game Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal need to win to hopefully avoid the play-in tournament.
If the West's top trio finish tied atop the standings, the seeding would be as follows: Oklahoma City, Minnesota then Denver, by virtue of each team's record against the other two.
The Thunder hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Nuggets if both win and the Wolves lose, while Minnesota owns the tiebreaker over Denver due to division record should Oklahoma City somehow fall to Dallas' C-team as the Timberwolves and Nuggets win their finales. Denver's only chance to finish with the 1-seed and own mile-high home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs is a win a over Memphis, coupled with losses from the Thunder and Wolves.
No. 4 seed: Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers lost a one-point game to the shorthanded Utah Jazz on Friday, Ty Lue barely playing his starters after learning shortly before tipoff that they'd clinched the 4-seed after Dallas fell to the Detroit Pistons. Los Angeles will have home-court advantage in yet another postseason tilt with Doncic and the Mavericks.
One question remains: Will Kawhi Leonard, dealing with knee inflammation, be ready for Game 1?
No. 5 seed: Dallas Mavericks
A Mavericks-Clippers postseason matchup is always must-watch TV. Dallas has been one of the best teams in the league since the trade deadline, revamping its rotation and playing style after adding Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington.
The Mavs' first-round fight with Los Angeles will also be their first taste of Doncic and Kyrie Irving under the playoff pressure cooker. Needless to say, get your popcorn ready.
Nos. 6 or 7 seeds: New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns
Both teams squeaked out massive road victories in playoff-type atmospheres Friday night, assuring they won't have to win two games just to advance to the playoffs. But the 6-seed is still up for grabs between the Pelicans and Suns, and neither faces an easy matchup on Sunday.
New Orleans will finish sixth in the West if it beats the Los Angeles Lakers at Smoothie King Center. Phoenix must defeat Minnesota while the Pelicans lose to the Lakers to get No. 6, winning the tiebreaker over New Orleans due to head-to-head record.
Nos. 8, 9 or 10 seeds: Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors
What a difference 24 hours makes. A last-second win from the Lakers and hard-fought losses from the Kings and Warriors on a wild Friday night threw the bottom of the Western Conference postseason field into further disarray, ensuring play-in matchups would be decided on the final day of 2023-24.
It's simple for the Lakers. A full game up on the Warriors and slumping Kings at 46-35, they'll get the 8-seed—and skirt the obligation of winning a pair of play-in games to make the playoffs—by beating the Pelicans in arguably the most important game left in the regular season. The purple-and-gold could still dip to 10th with a loss in New Orleans and wins by their California play-in rivals, courtesy of a tie-breaking 1-7 record against them this season.
The Kings and Warriors face much easier matchups, hosting Utah and the Portland Trail Blazers—each of whom's lottery odds would be improved with a loss. The Jazz, in particular, are essentially guaranteed to punt on Sunday's game because they're currently eighth in the lottery and surely don't want to even slightly increase their odds of surrendering a top-10 protected first-round pick by getting a win, tying them with the Nets in the standings. That's a welcome coincidence for Golden State, which has already indicated plans to sit its veteran stars at Chase Center.
The Warriors' only hope of shirking the 9-10 play-in game is a win over the Jazz and losses for Los Angeles and Sacramento, the latter of which is highly unlikely. By far the most realistic scenario is Golden State finishing ninth or 10th regardless of what transpires with the Lakers, beating Utah as the Kings also close their season with a victory.
Finally, Sacramento needs a win and a loss from the Lakers to get the 8-seed, owning the tiebreaker over the Dubs due to division record. Otherwise, the Kings are set to host the 9-10 game with just a victory over the Blazers, facing a do-or-die rematch of last year's first-round epic with Golden State if Los Angeles beats New Orleans.
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