We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 325 as the Prelims get underway with this opening bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. Oban Elliott of Wales will take on Australia's Jonathan Micallef in what should be an electric start to the action. Check our UFC 325 odds series for the Elliott-Micallef prediction and pick.
Oban Elliott (12-3) has gone 3-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2024. Following a unanimous decision loss in his last bout, he had to withdraw from this previous matchup against Micallef in September 2025. Now, he returns healthy and ready to upset as the short underdog. Elliott stands six feet tall with a 72-inch reach.
Jonathan Micallef (8-1) makes his second walk to the UFC octagon following a debut win over Kevin Jousset a year ago. He hasn't been active since his last cancellation, so expect Micallef to be extremely motivated and ready to brawl during this one. He stands six feet tall with 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 325 Odds: Oban Elliott-Jonathan Micallef Odds
Oban Elliott: +114
Jonathan Micallef: -135
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Oban Elliott Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) SeokHyeon Ko – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Oban Elliott is hoping to bounce back after suffering a loss as the -485 clear betting favorite to win the fight. However, he seemed flat-footed and couldn't land his combinations all night, an overall off performance for the promising Welsh striker. He had to pull out of this bout previously due to an undisclosed illness, but he appears healthy and motivated to get back in the win column this weekend.
Elliott is very crisp with his boxing when he's able to find his rhythm and he's got a nose for finishing the fight as well. His head movement and ability to close the distance is his greatest strength, but he could improve his defense and get caught less on his entries. Elliott is a strong wrestler and has three submissions while never falling victim to the SUB in his career.
Elliott's landing more accurately (48%) opposite of Micallef (42%) and his defense is also slight better at 60%, an overall great mark compared to top fighters in other divisions. Elliott will have to be decisive in his actions, not allowing his opponent to feel confident with his jab. If Elliott is able to close the distance and make this a scrappy fight, he should be able to come out on top.
Why Jonathan Micallef Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kevin Jousset – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
In his debut UFC fight, Jonathan Micallef managed a complete performance over a seasoned striker like Kevin Jousset. While Micallef led the striking totals just marginally, the snap behind his punches and conviction in which he threw them ultimately made the difference in the judges' scorecards. He'll have a significant five-inch reach advantage over his opponent, which he's been more than willing to use in the past.
Micallef keeps his boxing guard close and high, but he's able to cover great distances when popping his punches out front. He also has a very long reach with his legs, allowing him to snap leg kicks from a safe distance without risking the counter strikes. Elliott has struggled with rangy strikers in the past, so Micallef should be able to lead this pace if he's able to exploit the advantage.
His chin hasn't been tested a whole lot up to this point and it'll be interesting to see how he handles getting hit by an angry Elliott. He's been able to break down similar fighters in the past, so Micallef should be able to win this fight if he's able to stick to his usual game plan.
Final Oban Elliott-Jonathan Micallef Prediction & Pick
This fight has been a long time coming since last September and these two fighters should be expected to immediately get into the striking from the opening bell. With Micallef's significant reach advantage, the outset of this fight will be determined by whether he can utilize the distance or not.
Oban Elliott, on the other hand, will have to win as the underdog behind his technical boxing skills. He's coming in following an undisciplined performance, so we should be in for his best version coming into this one. He'll have to time his entry perfectly if he wants to catch Micallef clean on the chin.
However, I think the fluid striking and reach of Micallef may be too much for Elliott as I see him controlling the distance without suffering too much damage. While it'll be a coin-toss as to who controls along the fence, I still like Micallef to come away with the win if this goes to all three rounds.
Final Oban Elliott-Jonathan Micallef Prediction & Pick: Jonathan Micallef (-135); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-215)
