UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 continues on the prelims with a bout between Junior Tafa and Billy Elekana in the light heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Tafa-Elekana prediction and pick.
Junior Tafa (6–4) snapped a two-fight skid by finishing Sean Sharaf in round two, only to get submitted in his last fight against Tuco Tokkos, showcasing kill-or-be-killed defense issues but true one-shot power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Billy Elekana.
Billy Elekana (9–2) rides back-to-back UFC wins, dominating Ibo Aslan over three rounds before club-and-sub finishing Kevin Christian with a slick rear-naked choke in the first, showcasing poised counter striking and opportunistic grappling as he comes into his fight this weekend against Junior Tafa.
Here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 325 odds: Junior Tafa-Billy Elekana odds
Junior Tafa: +200
Billy Elekana: -245
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Junior Tafa will win
- Last Fight: (L) Tuco Tokkos – SUB R2
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 (6 KO/TKO)
Junior Tafa’s clearest path against Billy Elekana is raw knockout power and chaos-creating pressure. Coming from a decorated kickboxing base, every exchange at range favors his heavier hands, low kicks, and willingness to bite down and trade.
Elekana is composed but far less proven under true heavyweight power. His grappling threats also require extended, cleaner entries that Tafa’s forward pressure and feints can disrupt.
When Elekana sits tall behind his jab and kicks, he leaves counter windows for Tafa’s hooks over the top and calf kicks that slow his movement. If Tafa consistently backs him to the fence, the fight becomes a series of volatile pocket exchanges where one mistake can be fatal.
Tafa has also shown he can carry his power late enough to punish defensive lapses after opponents slow down. In a three-round fight where Elekana must survive big moments to implement a more measured game, the more likely script is Tafa turning one wild flurry or counter into a fight-ending sequence at UFC 325.
Why Billy Elekana will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kevin Christian – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Billy Elekana’s best path over Junior Tafa is discipline and diversification. He is the more complete mixed martial artist, with credible wrestling and a proven ability to transition from rocking opponents on the feet straight into fight-ending submissions.
Tafa, by contrast, remains heavily reliant on early knockout power and has glaring defensive grappling holes. Recent losses highlighted his inability to consistently stuff takedowns, scramble intelligently, or protect his neck when opponents chain attempts together.
If Elekana survives the initial blitz, he can start taxing Tafa’s gas tank with clinch pressure, level changes, and mat returns. Each successful entry forces Tafa to think about more than just defending strikes, slowing his output and dulling his explosiveness.
On the feet, Elekana’s southpaw stance, reach, and cleaner shot selection can score while staying just outside Tafa’s counter range. Over three rounds, that layered approach—jabs, straight lefts, kicks into takedowns and submission threats—sets up a scenario where Elekana drowns Tafa with pace and variety, earning a late submission or clear decision at UFC 325.
Final Junior Tafa-Billy Elekana prediction & pick
This matchup tilts slightly toward Billy Elekana, but it is extremely volatile given Junior Tafa’s one-shot power and 100 percent finish rate in victories. Elekana’s edge lies in his deeper toolkit, steadier cardio, and the ability to threaten takedowns and submissions across three rounds.
Tafa’s clearest path is an early knockout before grappling and pace become factors. However, three of his four losses have come via stoppage, often when opponents were able to drag him into extended exchanges or exploit his defensive grappling.
Elekana, by contrast, has shown he can both finish and win on the cards, with a balanced mix of submissions and decisions and more consistent round-winning skills. If he survives the early storm, his willingness to mix straight shots, kicks, clinch work, and level changes should steadily wear on Tafa.
The prediction leans Elekana by late stoppage or clear decision after weathering some dangerous moments. Still, the knockout threat from Tafa keeps this as one of UFC 325’s higher-variance spots on the card.
Final Junior Tafa-Billy Elekana Prediction & Pick: Billy Elekana (-245), Over 1.5 Rounds (-160)
