NBA Tuesday is in full swing as we're back with another betting prediction and pick, now continuing this next cross-conference season series. The Miami Heat (20-16) will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13) as Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Heat-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
The Miami Heat are currently seventh in the Eastern Conference following a 125-106 win over the New Orleans Pelicans. Following a tough 1-8 record for their worst stretch of the season, they've responded well with five wins over their last six games, looking to gain revenge against this Minnesota squad.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are sixth in the Western Conference standings, most recently beating the Washington Wizards 141-115. They've also picked things up with eight wins over their last 12 games, gaining on the rest of the conference following a rocky start.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Heat vs. Timberwolves Odds
Miami Heat: +6.5 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves: -6.5 (-105)
Over: 239.5 (-110)
Under: 239.5 (-110)
Heat vs. Timberwolves Key Injuries
Miami: Jaime Jacquez Jr. (ankle – OUT)
Minnesota: Terrence Shannon Jr. (foot – OUT)
Heat vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
- The Minnesota Timberwolves are 12-6 at home this season. The Miami Heat are 7-10 on the road.
- The Timberwolves are 21-8 as betting favorites. The Heat are 9-10 as underdogs.
- The Timberwolves are 15-21 ATS overall, 7-11 ATS at home. The Heat are 21-15 ATS overall, 10-7 ATS on the road.
- The Timberwolves are 7-3 outright in their last 10 games against the Heat.
- The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
- The Timberwolves are 13-5 over their last 18 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Minnesota's last eight home games.
Keys to Heat vs. Timberwolves Matchup
The Timberwolves cruised to a decisive 125-115 win in Miami the first time these two sides met as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (33) and Naz Reid (29) combined for 62 points as Rudy Gobert led all players with 12 rebounds. When healthy, it seems as though the size and physicality in the paint is too much for this Miami Heat team to handle for all four quarters. Expect a ton of pressure on Bam Adebayo to be sound defensively in this game as he'll have to remain disciplined in avoiding fouls.
To add, the Minnesota Timberwolves are attempting the sixth-most free throws per game (26.8) in the NBA as Anthony Edwards' slashing style forces the opposing defenders to make quick decisions. Julius Randle is also averaging 22.3 PPG, his highest mark since joining the Timberwolves, so expect continued growth out of him as a scorer. With Rudy Gobert locking down the paint, the Heat scorers will certainly have to find shooting success from beyond the paint.
The Miami Heat have been gritty in their own right this season, ranking eighth league-wide in rebounds per game (45.5) and fifth in steals per game (9.5). The emergence of Kel'el Ware as a dominant shot blocker has added a new layer to their interior defense, but his rebounding at 10.6 RPG ranks seventh in the league as he's making the difference for his team on the boards. If he can manage to have another dominant game and offer resistance to Rudy Gobert, the Heat should have a chance to remain competitive in this one.
Still, the Timberwolves have been dominant at home this season and although they're working with a moderate spread, they should be in position to win this game outright if Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are both able to rack 20 points. Rudy Gobert should hold things down on the defensive end of the floor and Naz Reid will be a threat from behind the arc throughout the whole game.
Heat vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick
While the Miami Heat are almost fully healthy for the first time in quite a while, the Minnesota Timberwolves seem to have an advantageous matchup in this game with their interior size and defense around the perimeters. Both teams are strong defensively, so this game could come down to the final few possessions. In those situations, we have to favor the home team and the best player on the floor in Anthony Edwards.
Still, the Heat should be able to keep this game close behind the rebounding efforts of Kel'el Ware and Tyler Herro likely returning from injury to lead the scoring charge. While it may not be enough to grab the road win, the should make this one interesting throughout the first half.
Nevertheless, we're going to side with the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover the spread at home in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle, cashing the total under.
Final Heat-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 (-105); UNDER 239.5 (-110)
