The NFL Playoffs are here and we're set to bring you all the betting predictions and pick for the Wild Card round, this next showdown taking place in the AFC. The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) will take on the New England Patriots (14-3) as the two sides meet for the first time this season. Check our NFL Wild Card odds series for the Patriots-Chargers prediction and pick.
The Los Angeles Chargers secured the AFC's final No. 7 seed following a 19-3 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 18. While they posted a 7-1 record through the back-half of the season, they dropped their final two games and will hope to get back in the win column when it matters most.
The New England Patriots secured the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC, trouncing the Miami Dolphins 38-10 in their final game of the season. They've dropped just one game since starting the season with a 1-2 record, now hosting a playoff game behind their MVP candidate quarterback Drake Maye.
NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings
Patriots vs. Chargers AFC Wild Card Odds
Los Angeles Chargers: +3.5 (-112)
New England Patriots: -3.5 (-108)
Over: 46.5 (-108)
Under: 46.5 (-112)
Patriots vs. Chargers Key Injuries
*practice status as of 1/7/2026, subject to change*
New England: CB Alex Austin (wrist – Limited) / LB Jack Gibbens (elbow – Limited) / TE Hunter Henry (rest – Limited) / LB Harold Landry III (knee – Limited) / OT Thayer Munford Jr. (knee – Limited) / LB Robert Spillane (ankle – Limited) / G Jared Wilson (concussion – Limited) / C Garrett Bradbury (illness – DNP) / LB Anfernee Jennings (illness – DNP) / OT Vederian Lowe (illness – DNP) / OT Morgan Moses (illness – DNP) / DT Khyiris Tonga (foot – DNP)
Los Angeles: CB Donte Jackson (ankle – Limited) / DB Elijah Molden (hamstring – Limited) / OL Jamaree Salyer (hamstring – Limited) / WR Keenan Allen (rest – DNP) / OT Austin Deculus (oblique – DNP) / LB Bud Dupree (hamstring – DNP) / RB Omarion Hampton (ankle – DNP) / WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring – DNP) / LB Khalil Mack (rest – DNP) / LB Del'Shawn Phillips (hamstring – DNP) / S Kendall Williamson (ankle – DNP)
Patriots vs. Chargers Betting Trends
- The New England Patriots are 6-3 at home this season. The Los Angeles Chargers are 5-3 on the road.
- The Patriots are 12-5 ATS this season. The Chargers are 9-8 ATS overall.
- The Patriots are 5-4 ATS at home, the Chargers 3-5 ATS on the road.
- The Chargers are 2-1 outright, 2-1 ATS in their last three games against the Patriots.
- The Patriots are 9-1 in their last 10 games, 7-3 ATS.
- The Chargers are 7-3, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chargers' last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in New England's last five consecutive games.
Keys to Patriots vs. Chargers Matchup
This game is very interesting thanks to the relative inexperience of both quarterbacks. Both Patriots' Drake Maye and Chargers' Justin Herbert are the main catalysts for their teams' success, Maye having the much better season of the two. Maye is in rare territory leading his team to the No. 2 seed in just his second year as a starter and he also holds the second-shortest odds to win the league's Most Valuable Player award. Justin Herbert has had a solid season in his own right, but there's a reason the Patriots are favored to win this game at home.
Chargers' Justin Herbert has notably had his fair share of bad luck in the playoffs with an 0-2 record throughout his career. On one occasion, the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead. The other, Herbert threw four interceptions en route to a 32-12 loss to the Texans prior to a forgettable season in 2024. He has a chance to be the veteran quarterback in a situation where Drake Maye makes his first postseason start, so Herbert should have all the tools to lead his team down the stretch.
The Patriots are the better offense with 379.4 average yards per game. The Chargers, however, sport a top-5 defense in the league, only allowed 285.2 average yards to opponents. The Patriots have only 16 giveaways on the season to the Chargers' 21 turnovers. The Patriots' defense also allows less average points (18.8) to opponents compared to the Chargers (20.0), but the difference is only marginal. Both defenses play with a bend-don't-break attitude and we could be in for a low-scoring game on both sides.
Patriots vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick
With Drake Maye making his first NFL Playoff appearance and Chargers' Justin Herbert hoping to change in postseason fortunes, this game will likely come down to whichever team can control the line of scrimmage. Both offenses are capable in the running game behind their star rookies while both defenses are two of the better overall units in the AFC.
On offense, we have to give the edge to Drake Maye and the Patriots thanks to their passing game. While he's bound to make mistakes during his first postseason start, Maye has shown great poise and is likely to keep his team out in front during this one. While the Chargers defense ranks in the league's top units, the Patriots defense has been stingy in their games closing the season.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with the New England Patriots to win and cover the spread at home thanks to recent trends. Expect the total under in a low-scoring game as touchdowns will be at a premium.
Final Patriots-Chargers AFC Wild Card Prediction & Pick: New England Patriots -3.5 (-108); UNDER 46.5 (-112)
