The Phoenix Suns are fighting to stay out of the NBA play-in round. The Suns, who are 47-33, are seventh in the West, trailing the No. 6 seed New Orleans Pelicans by a full game.
“We are confident that if we are in a play-in game, we will win,” Suns coach Frank Vogel said. “All of us want to get into the top-6.”
The Suns play an important game against the Sacramento Kings, the No. 8 seed, on Friday. With a win, Phoenix will lock up at least the No. 7 seed in the West. It can finish no higher than sixth. The Suns need to win each of their last two games and have the New Orleans Pelicans, who are one game ahead of them, lose a contest to stay out of the play-in. The Suns can also advance to the first round if the Pelicans lose both of their remaining games and they win one.
Were the Suns to stay where they are at, they would host the No. 8 seed in a home game. Currently, they would face the Sacramento Kings.
Here is a look at each of the scenarios the Suns could find themselves in.
Play-in: No. 7 seed vs. No. 8 seed
If the Suns win either of their remaining games against the Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively, they will lock in a game as at least the No. 7 seed.
“It's a little nerve-wracking, but it's another game,” Bradley Beal said. “You show up and if it’s a double elimination or single elimination, we have to make it work. At the same time, we control our destiny.”
The Suns would be paired against the Kings if the play-in were to begin today. Phoenix has played Sacramento four times this season and plays a very important game against De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and their team Friday at Golden 1 Center.
If the playoffs began today, Phoenix could win versus Sacramento and face the No. 2 seed, the Minnesota Timberwolves, in the first round. If it lost in the play-in, it would face the winner of the No. 9 and No. 10 game with a chance to play the defending-champion Denver Nuggets in the first round. The Suns would currently face the OKC Thunder assuming they were the No. 6 seed, which could be their most difficult matchup.
Phoenix is currently at 47 wins. If the Suns finish at that mark, things could get tricky.
Phoenix would be subject to several tie-breaker scenarios involving the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Kings.
Although the Suns could finish with the same overall record as the Kings, they would still fall behind them in the standings in that scenario due to combined head-to-head matchups between those two teams. They would be ahead of the Lakers, however. If they end up with the same record as the Warriors and Lakers, Phoenix would be ahead of the two teams in that scenario and could go no lower than the eighth seed. The tiebreaker would go to head-to-head records, meaning the Suns would be 7-7 against those teams. Sacramento, assuming it won each of its last two games, would be 9-4, and the Warriors (7-9 division) and Lakers (6-6) would be 6-6 and 4-9, respectively.
Phoenix could play the Kings again in the NBA play-in round, either as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Phoenix has the season series won over the Warriors, so the Suns will finish above them even if it loses its final two games.
There is also a scenario in which the Suns could play the Lakers, who won the season series. That game could be on the road if Los Angeles manages to finish 47-35 with teams below them.
Potential matchup: Sacramento Kings
The Suns will have their fifth matchup against the Kings because they played a game following Phoenix's elimination from the NBA play-in round.
Sacramento is one of the top scoring groups, averaging 116.6 points. It is led by stars De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis and has six players including those two who average double figures in scoring.
The Kings won the first two games against the Suns Dec. 8 and Dec. 22 by scores of 114-106 and 120-105, respectively. Sacramento seemed to be on its way for a third win Jan. 16 but Phoenix pulled off a 22-point fourth-quarter comeback to win 119-117.
Potential matchup: New Orleans Pelicans
Phoenix hopes to jump New Orleans and regain the no. 6 seed, which would avoid the play-in altogether. It's possible the Suns face the Pelicans in a potential game for the No. 8 seed.
Phoenix has won two of three games against the Pelicans. However, it missed a chance to jump two games ahead of New Orleans when it lost its most recent home game against Zion Williamson and the Pels, 113-105.
The Suns, who are 47-33, can take the sixth seed if they tie the Pelicans' record or finish one game above them.
Potential matchup: Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry nailed a 3-pointer to give the Warriors their first win over the Suns this year, 113-112, Feb. 10.
The Suns had three wins against the Warriors prior to Dec. 13, when they had their Big 3 on the floor for the first time. Phoenix won its season opener at Golden State and former point guard Chris Paul, 104-104, Oct. 25. It then won at home 123-115 on Nov. 22 and at home one more instance Dec. 12.
Potential matchup: LA Lakers
LeBron James and Anthony Davis faced the Suns in the 2021 NBA playoffs, losing in six games. Three years later, Phoenix is a different team with the Lakers' previous coach, Vogel, on its bench. The Suns also have a superteam-type of roster with Booker, Durant and Beal.
A one-game scenario against James could be the most dangerous chance for the Suns to have an early exit. That is assuming the two teams played in the No.7/No. 8 game, but it's also possible Phoenix plays the Lakers if it loses in the first game and has a winner-take-all setting for the No. 8 seed.
The Suns begin an important two-game trip to finish their season Friday against the Kings. The game will tip off at 7:30 p.m. PT.
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