The NBA season seems like it just started. From the very first NBA In-Season Tournament to a hectic trade deadline that once again involved star players coming up in rumors, we have now reached the conclusion of the regular season. Every team in the league has 10 or fewer games remaining on their schedule, and there are still a lot of unknowns pertaining to the playoffs. Better yet, there are a ton of question marks surrounding the futures of NBA stars such as Paul George, Klay Thompson, Donovan Mitchell, and others with free agency, looming on the horizon.
The rumor mill across the NBA never stops. Which player is going to become available in trade talks? Who will opt in or out of their contract? Is it time for certain teams to reset? These are key talking points discussed among league personnel around this time of the year, right before the playoffs begin. Ultimately, the answer to these questions is whatever you want them to be, as what happens in the playoffs has a significant influence on the futures of players and organizations alike across the league.
The Los Angeles Clippers have been a contending threat in the West ever since Kawhi Leonard and George joined the organization in 2019. However, George has the option to become a free agent in the offseason, which would make him the biggest name available on the open market.
Klay Thompson and the Golden State Warriors find themselves in a different boat than the Clippers. Nothing has seemed to go right for the Warriors since they won the 2022 NBA Finals, and Thompson's regression this season has put Golden State in a weird spot from a financial perspective. While he may be a future Hall of Famer, the league's new penalties for teams who surpass the second tax apron can be cruel to a team like the Warriors, who can't afford to lure key secondary talents while paying Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Thompson max-level-like contracts.
Then there is Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers, a strong-minded defensive team that resides near the top of the Eastern Conference standings despite numerous injuries piling up throughout the year. What the Cavs have achieved to this point is impressive, especially when you consider that JB Bickerstaff was on the hot seat entering the season, and they have barely had their core group of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley on the floor together this season.
The Cavs' regular starting lineup, which also includes sharpshooter Max Strus, has only played 22 total games together to this point in the season. Still, Cleveland finds itself with a 44-29 record and is very much in contention for the 2-seed in the East. As the Cavs continue to win games and prove that they are a contender in the East, the chances of Mitchell wanting a change of scenery decrease.
The NBA Playoffs will be a deciding factor for what we should expect to see in the offseason. Plenty of tiebreakers and games late in the year will set the stage for the NBA playoff picture. With the playoffs on the verge of beginning, offseason chatter has already begun around the league.
Latest on Paul George's future
In January, the Los Angeles Clippers and Leonard agreed to a $152 million contract extension that keeps him with the organization through the 2026-27 season. One of owner Steve Ballmer's main goals entering the year was to reassure his two stars, Kawhi and George, that the organization was dedicated to winning at the highest level possible. That is why they went all-in for James Harden at the start of the year and why the Clippers decided now was the right time to agree to this extension with Leonard.
“I mean it was just time,” Leonard told reporters after the news of his extension. “There's really nothing to pinpoint a specific date on it. It was just time to do it and then it just happened.”
Although he took less money and one less year on his new contract than he could have, Leonard is committed to keeping the Clippers in a position to contend for a championship. In doing so, he also presented the opportunity for the Clippers to reward George with a similar extension, one that could possibly pay him more money to stick around. The key question here is whether or not George wants to stay with the organization as they transition from Los Angeles and Crypto.com Arena to Inglewood in their new Intuit Dome, which will be ready for the 2024-25 season.
George is set to turn 34 years old on May 2, a time when the Clippers expect to be heading to the Western Conference semifinals after winning their first series. How the Clippers finish the season is going to be very telling as to what the future holds for them, especially since no extension has come for George yet, despite many anticipating the team getting a deal done with the All-Star shortly after signing Kawhi.
The belief coming from Los Angeles is that there is nothing to worry about, and George will be with the organization for several more years, sources said. Even before he has to make a decision on his $48.8 million player option for the 2024-25 season, George can receive a four-year extension that will pay him upwards of $220 million, aligning him with Leonard's contract. By signing an extension with the Clippers, George would lock himself into the same amount of money any other team around the league can offer him should he become a free agent, and he would provide the organization with a sense of flexibility as they turn their attention towards keeping Harden, who will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Similar remarks have also been made by ESPN's Brian Windhorst. As Windhorst noted on The Hoop Collective Podcast recently, George and the Clippers are “apart” on a potential extension, although all roads still lead to the All-Star remaining in his current situation.
Ballmer wants to win and thus will be willing to pay the high tax bill that will come along with paying the fees associated with extensions for Leonard, George, and Harden. For George, he is at the point in his career where the money matters, but winning can cement his legacy in the league. Since coming to the Clippers, George has helped the team advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in team history during the 2020-21 season. However, the team has made the playoffs once since then, losing in the first round to the Phoenix Suns in 2023.
Should George be open to a change of scenery in hopes of joining an organization with a better track record of playoff success, there will be suitors on the open market for him. The Philadelphia 76ers have not been shy about reminding teams that they will have the ability to create enough cap space to sign a max-level player such as George. The Indiana Pacers, George's former team, will also be looking to make significant roster upgrades in the offseason around All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. The Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz will have a lot of space to operate with, although they aren't viewed as legitimate suitors for a player of George's caliber.
George is from Palmdale, California, roughly an hour and a half north of Los Angeles. Would he really leave home and the comforts of the West Coast in order to start over in what would be viewed by many around the league as a lateral move? The money and opportunity are there for George with the Clippers, which is why leaving is a hard concept for league personnel to believe in at this time.
Warriors' dynasty on the line
Immediately following their championship run in 2022, the Warriors seemed to take a step back in terms of their leadership and accountability. Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole in practice prior to the start of the 2022-23 season set the stage for what became an inconsistent and average year. The Warriors ended up losing in the Western Conference semifinals to the Los Angeles Lakers, the first time this core of Stephen Curry, Green, and Thompson lost in the playoffs before the NBA Finals since their first championship run in 2015.
With Poole gone and Chris Paul joining the team, the Warriors turned their attention towards regaining their confidence and championship mindset entering the 2023-24 season. None of this has occurred to this point, and the Warriors find themselves in a position where they need to win virtually every game down the stretch run of the season to avoid falling out of the play-in tournament picture all together.
In the midst of their lack of success, Thompson has struggled to be the All-Star player he once was. Perhaps his major leg injuries are catching up to him at 34 years old, or maybe Klay is finally reaching the point in his career where it's time to take things in a different direction. This doesn't necessarily mean it is time to leave the Warriors, as neither side wants this to happen, league sources informed ClutchPoints. However, every player reaches a point in their career where their role either changes or they have to adapt by coming to the realization that they aren't the player they once were.
Thompson has gone from being a starter this year to coming off the bench for the first time in his career. Now, head coach Steve Kerr recently put him back in the starting lineup, and Klay has slowly been building up his confidence in the month of March. As a result, his scoring numbers and shooting splits have increased. Regardless of whether he is looking like the All-Star he used to be, Thompson's importance to the Warriors runs a lot deeper than how many triples he can bury in a single game.
“Klay is really the heartbeat of this team,” Paul told NBC Sports Bay Area earlier in March. “People don’t understand. How he comes in and how he feels gets us going, so we’re gonna keep feeding off him.”
Where the Warriors finish the season will be very telling as to what the future holds for them. At this point, the Warriors are staring down a scenario where they will be the 10-seed entering the Western Conference Play-In Tournament. If the season ended today, they would need to not only pick up a road win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 9-seed vs. 10-seed game, but they would also need to defeat the loser of the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings, who would be facing off in the 7-seed vs. 8-seed game.
The path to the playoffs is very complicated for the Warriors. Even if they manage to win their way to an actual playoff spot, they are staring down a scenario where they may have to play the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets in a first-round series. Assuming the season does not end in what would be one of the most improbable title runs in NBA history, the Warriors are going to have to make some key decisions regarding their future financials.
Curry, Green, and Wiggins are set to make over $100 million combined during the 2024-25 season. Kevon Looney has an $8 million contract that is only partially guaranteed for $3 million, and Paul's $30 million contract is non-guaranteed for next season. Then there is Thompson, who will be entering the summer as an unrestricted free agent, assuming he and the Warriors don't agree to an extension between now and the start of NBA free agency.
Remaining with the Warriors is still at the forefront of Thompson's mind, sources said, even though this may be the last chance in his career to pursue a large contract on the open market, given his name and history. The main priority for the Warriors this offseason is to figure out how to capitalize on the final years of Curry's career and compete for more championships. Thompson has been the organization's second-best player for years, which is why they also have a lot of interest in retaining him this offseason.
Warriors owner Joe Lacob and the front office would like to achieve this goal by having Klay return on a team-friendly contract, one that would still give the organization flexibility in terms of their financial situation. It is hard to see a scenario in which the Warriors would eclipse a four-year, $100 million contract for Thompson, the same deal they recently gave to Green. Whatever the case may be, expect Golden State to keep Thompson around in the offseason on a new deal that aligns him with the contracts of Curry and Green.
Along with Thompson, decisions will need to be made regarding Paul and Wiggins. The word on the street is that the Warriors want to keep Paul around if they can logistically make the money work. However, there isn't a single person outside of the organization who believes this is a realistic possibility. The Warriors opting out of the $30 million they would owe Paul for next season instantly frees up funds and money they would owe in taxes.
Wiggins, like Thompson, has been dealing with his own struggles this season in terms of his declining numbers. The 29-year-old forward, who just signed a four-year, $109 million contract extension in October, has averaged a career-low 12.9 points per game while shooting 45.7 percent from the floor. There is a big possibility that the Warriors will be forced to choose between keeping Wiggins or giving Jonathan Kuminga an extension since he will be entering the final year of his rookie deal in the offseason. An extension for Kuminga is looking to be in the ballpark of five years and anywhere between $120 million and $130 million.
Should the Warriors hold onto Wiggins, the financial implications of extending Kuminga would be detrimental to this team's future, especially with a new contract for Thompson set to come in the summer. Making Wiggins available on the trade block coming off of a disappointing season is a likely scenario for the Warriors in the offseason. There has been interest from other teams in the former first overall pick dating back to the trade deadline, as the Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks, and even the Cleveland Cavaliers all held interest, league sources said.
The Cavs held a slight internal interest in Wiggins and discussed the possibility of pursuing him at the trade deadline, although no real pursuit was ever made by Cleveland at the trade deadline.
Over $170 million already on the books for next season, including the contracts of Paul and Looney, put the Warriors in the most intriguing spot out of any other organization in the NBA ahead of the summer.
Possible extension for Donovan Mitchell?
The Cavaliers are a very interesting story right now because, even though they are on the verge of a second straight 50-win season, their superstar is being brought up in rumors as if he is leaving soon. Since joining the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been their best player, and he has helped elevate this franchise to the point where they can be a legitimate championship contender without LeBron James being on their roster.
Next to Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland help form one of the better starting groups in the league. Cleveland has mixed up the fifth spot in their lineup throughout the year, as Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, and Caris LeVert have all been sturdy secondary options that each bring something unique to the table.
Like many teams in this league, Cleveland is still trying to understand what their long-term cap situation is going to look like and how this will impact their odds of contending for a championship over the next handful of seasons. The difference between the Cavs and the rest of the league is that they have a youthful core group that is led by Mitchell, a 27-year-old who is already a five-time All-Star.
The main reason Mitchell wanted a trade from the Utah Jazz, a franchise that had claimed the 1-seed in the Western Conference with Mitchell as their featured star, is because he wanted to join a team that had the roster to compete at the highest level possible. He also wanted to be in a location that valued him just as much as he valued the fans who supported the team.
Mitchell is the Cavaliers' focal point, and they have done everything that they have needed to in order to build their roster into one that can contend against the likes of the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference. Whether or not this team is good enough to win in the playoffs is yet to be seen. Should Cleveland fail to advance past the first round again, there could be a change made regarding the frontcourt duo of Mobley and Allen.
In regards to Mitchell and his contract situation, he is still under contract for one more year before owning a $37 million player option for the 2025-26 season. Based on the terms of the league's new collective bargaining agreement, Mitchell will be eligible to sign a four-year extension worth upwards of $200 million this summer, something Cavs owner Dan Gilbert envisions as the most likely outcome for his organization and their superstar.
“We’ve been talking to him, sure, for the last couple of years about extending this contract,” Gilbert said in a recent interview with The Associated Press. “We think he will extend. I think if you listen to him talk, he loves the city.
“He loves the situation in Cleveland because our players are very young and we’re just kind of putting the core together that he’s clearly the biggest part of.”
A lot of noise has been made this season about Mitchell possibly leaving the Cavaliers and requesting a trade should the team fail to meet their playoff expectations. Mitchell's desire to win at the highest level possible, as well as his past being tied to the city of New York, has resulted in the idea that he could look to join either the Brooklyn Nets or the New York Knicks. Mitchell has a strong relationship with Nets star Mikal Bridges, and he has always been a fan of the Knicks, dating back to when he was growing up.
Before this season's trade deadline, league sources close to Mitchell told ClutchPoints that his focus is solely on the Cavs, and that he remains happy in Cleveland. Mitchell has given the Cavs no reason to believe that he is wanting to leave anytime soon. His current mindset remains the same as it was earlier in the season, leading the organization to the conclusion that they will be able to reach an agreement on a new contract in the near future.
While it is certainly possible that mindsets can change based on what occurs in the playoffs, Mitchell and the Cavs reaching an agreement on an extension in the offseason looks like the most likely outcome for this franchise at this moment.
Rockets focused on young core
If you had said at the end of February that the Houston Rockets would make the playoffs play-in tournament, you would've been called crazy. At 25-34 overall after going 3-9 in February, the Rockets have completely turned around their season. Even if they fail to make the play-in tournament at this juncture, what the Rockets have done should still be viewed as a win this season.
Houston has won 12 of their last 13 games, including 10 straight ahead of Friday's game against the Jazz. Better yet, they have done so without Alperen Sengun, their best player, who suffered a gruesome-looking leg and knee injury on March 10 against the Sacramento Kings.
This has been a magical season for Sengun, who has drawn attention in the Most Improved Player race all year. In a total of 63 games, Sengun averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists while shooting 53.7 percent from the floor. He had missed just one game prior to suffering this injury.
With Sengun out of the lineup, Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green have stepped up in huge ways for the Rockets. Smith, who is in his second season, has averaged 13.6 points and 6.7 rebounds in the seven games he has played since Sengun's injury. Green has registered at least 26 points in all but one game since Sengun got injured, recently recording a 42-point, 10-rebound performance in a 137-114 victory over the Washington Wizards.
Earlier in the season, Green struggled to carve out a consistent role under new head coach Ime Udoka. Now, he is proving to be their most important player down the stretch run of the season and one of the main reasons why they are even in the race for the final play-in tournament spot in the Western Conference. Green, who will likely be named Western Conference Player of the Week on Monday, has proven his worth to the Rockets.
Just this past offseason, the Rockets held internal conversations about adding an experienced frontcourt option. Brook Lopez was their top priority in free agency, league sources confirmed to ClutchPoints. Ultimately, they stuck with Sengun, developing him into a more well-rounded big man who could be an all-around weapon on the offensive end of the floor. The team's coaching staff really focused on helping Sengun play to his strengths and breaking down the film of Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis, two big men in the Western Conference who are utilized in many different ways.
After pursuing a big man in free agency last summer and trading for veteran Steven Adams this year, the Rockets have not given any indications that they will look to move Sengun. The 21-year-old has one more year left on his rookie contract, and the team has interest in a long-term extension, league sources said.
The same mindset of keeping their young, rising talents around exists for Green as well. Despite rumors suggesting that the Rockets were bringing up Green's name in trade rumors, they are confident in his ability to be a star for the foreseeable future. Like Sengun, Green will be eligible for an extension this upcoming offseason as he enters the final year of his rookie contract.
The belief from rival organizations in the Western Conference is that the Rockets will only include Green or Sengun in trade talks if they can land an All-Star quality player, who is not on an expiring deal, in return. Houston wants to win and will do what it takes to get back to an elite level, a spot they believe Udoka can take them to within the next couple of seasons.
All options remain on the table for the Rockets in their pursuit of winning despite their belief in the young core.
Early NBA Draft thoughts from March Madness
The end of March is upon us, and the 2024 NCAA Tournament carries on with the Elite 8 this weekend. While the 2024 NBA Draft class is shaping up to be significantly weaker than those in years past, there are several college players that have caught my eye during early draft evaluations.
For starters, we should look no further than Donovan Clingan from UConn. Standing roughly 7'2″ and becoming a better all-around center in his sophomore season. Clingan will enter the draft as the best big man available. From his footwork in the low post to his patience with the ball in his hands, the 20-year-old is going to be a very serviceable rim protector and high-percentage finisher on offense in the NBA.
Of course, if we are talking about college hoops, we have to take a look at the prospects Kentucky has. They surely didn't lose to Oakland in the opening round because of the talent on their roster, as Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and Justin Edwards are all potential first-round picks. DJ Wagner is going to be a wild card, as his athleticism and potential make him an intriguing prospect as well.
Dillingham is the player that sticks out the most, as his ball-handling skills and quickness as a scorer have drawn some similarities to those of former Kentucky guard Tyrese Maxey. Although he is on the smaller side compared to most NBA point guards, it's not hard to call Dillingham one of the best guards in the 2024 draft class.
Jared McCain from Duke, Tyler Kolek from Marquette, and Tristan Da Silva from Colorado are three players who have impressed NBA personnel in recent weeks. Da Silva's run in the tournament came to an end in the second round, but he was the catalyst for the Buffaloes making it out of the play-in game and upsetting Florida. With the ability to possibly be a stretch-four in the league and being able to score in a variety of ways, Da Silva can easily be an older prospect that rises up draft boards into the first round throughout the pre-draft process.
Duke and Marquette both play their Sweet 16 games on Friday, giving scouts a better look at what McCain and Kolek can bring to the table in the backcourt. There is a lot to like about McCain, especially in terms of his confidence as a shooter. The Duke guard has a chance to rise up into the lottery of this year's draft due to his 3-and-D tendencies. There are shades of CJ McCollum, Andrew Nembhard, and Patty Mills in McCain's game.
Kolek is an interesting player from a draft perspective because he is 23 years old and not necessarily an electric or athletic scorer like others. However, he may just be the best facilitator and passer in this draft class, as Kolek can easily fit into a role similar to what TJ McConnel holds with the Pacers. Any team that wants an experienced and poised guard who can pass and knock down open jumpers from the perimeter will fall in love with Kolek in the second round of the draft.
The NCAA Tournament as a whole seems to be about Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers. As good as Edey has been in college, it is hard to see his success translating to the NBA level. His ceiling is comparable to that of Ivica Zubac at best, and he doesn't possess the physicality NBA teams are looking for at the center position.
Too many times, Edey settles for a soft hook shot or layup attempt when he stands 7'4″ and towers over everyone on the floor. NBA teams have no need for 7-footers who don't look to dunk and punish their opponents every trip down the floor. Until he can prove his toughness and physicality against NBA-level competition, it's hard to grade Edey as a first-round prospect right now. If you agree with me, great. If not, then simply watch his tape against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game.
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