The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have righted themselves with back to back victories over the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. The wins allowed Mike Tomlin's team to reclaim first place in the AFC North after losing three of their four previous games.
Prior to the win over the Ravens, it appeared that the Steelers were falling apart and that a strong start to the season was about to go down the drain. However, Aaron Rodgers was not about to let that happen as he came through with one of his best games since leaving the Green Bay Packers at the conclusion of the 2022 season. He completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards with 1 touchdown and wideout D.K. Metcalf torched the Baltimore secondary with 7 catches for 148 yards.
The 27-22 road victory over the Ravens allowed the Steelers to take a sigh of relief and the 28-15 triumph over the Dolphins that followed has imbued the Steelers with some much-needed confidence.
Pittsburgh is going to have to raise its level of play once again in Week 16 as they travel to Detroit to take on the explosive Lions. Prior to the start of the season, the Lions were co-favorites along the with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
However, the Lions have not played the explosive football that allowed them to succeed on 3rd- and 4th-down plays that had been their signature during the previous 2 seasons.
The Lions (8-6) have lost 4 of their last 7 games, and the Lions are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. They are hoping for a 3-0 finish that could allow them to get back to the playoffs.
Look for Rodgers to throw for 275 yards and 2 TDs
Rodgers appears to have gotten comfortable in the Steelers offense and he has put solid numbers on the board. While the 42-year-old quarterback is not as elusive as he was earlier in his career, he has completed 248 of 371 passes for a 66.8 completion percentage. He has 2,494 passing yards with a 22-7 TD-interception ratio.
He has built a strong relationship with Metcalf and tight end Pat Friermuth. Metcalf has caught 55 of 90 targets for 808 yards with 6 TDs. Friermuth has caught 31-352-4, and 14 of his receptions have resulted in first downs.
Expect both Metcalf and Friermuth to catch TD passes from Rodgers against the Lions.
Defense likely to struggle if T.J. Watt is not able to play
The Steelers were able to play a solid defensive game in the victory over the Dolphins even though T.J. Watt was unable to play following a partially collapsed lung.
The All-Pro linebacker went through a “dry needling” process to repair the lung and he is making a recovery, but it appears to be something of a longshot that he will be in the lineup against the Lions. He did not practice Wednesday and neither did fellow linebacker Nick Herbig (hamstring).
It will be extremely difficult for Tomlin's defense to contain the Lions offense if neither Watt nor Herbig are able to play. While the Lions have not played up to expectations, Jared Goff is still one of the most accurate passers in the NFL, and he has a pair of dominant receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
The Lions are a fast-starting team when they are at their best, and they will try to hit the Steelers with a couple of big plays early. The Steelers limited Miami to 285 total yards, but it seems unlikely they will be able to do the same to head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions.
Steelers must establish time of possession advantage and stop Lions on 3rd and 4th downs
One thing that Tomlin knows about Campbell and the Lions is that they will almost always go for it when the team is in a short-yardage situation on 4th down. This had been a major area of success in previous years, but the Lions have not been able to emulate that success this season. The Lions have been successful on just 15 of 27 4th down attempts this season.
By stopping Detroit's offense in a couple of crucial 4th-down situations early in the game, the Steelers can sap the Lions' confidence and belief that they will come through in the season's home stretch.
Steelers running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell have to come through with a productive ground game against the Lions. Warren has carried the ball 171 times for 685 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Gainwell has 451 rushing yards, a 4.8 yards per carry mark and 4 rushing touchdowns. Gainwell has also been a key contributor in the passing game with 57-332-2 and 15 receptions for first downs.
Success in the running game will help the Steelers win the time of possession battle.
The Steelers are playing well enough to stay close to the Lions and push them for 4 quarters, but they will fall short against a desperate Lions team.
