The NFL playoffs are here and only the best of the best remain with 14 teams vying for a Super Bowl. Six of those teams will have their hopes ended prematurely over Wild Card Weekend, and there are a few blockbuster matchups on the card.
On Sunday night, two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL will go head to head when Drake Maye and the New England Patriots take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have been one of the surprises of the league this season, racing to a 14-3 record and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Chargers picked up the final wild card spot at 11-6.
The Chargers had a chance to play for better seeding in Week 18, and potentially help the Patriots get the No. 1 seed in the process, but they chose to rest Herbert against the Denver Broncos and were beaten 19-3 with Trey Lance at quarterback. The biggest reason for this was obviously that Herbert has been playing with a broken left hand for more than a month now, and this was a logical spot for him to get some extra rest before the postseason.
However, there may have been a part of the Chargers that was looking ahead to the first round of the playoffs and seeing the possible opponents they could play. Had the Chargers won, they could have moved up to the No. 6 seed and played the Broncos, but it was also on the table for Los Angeles to matchup up against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Out of the top three teams in the AFC, the Patriots are by far the team that the Chargers want to see in the postseason, and that could have played into their decision to sit Herbert and some other starters in Week 18.
Here are the two main reasons why the Chargers should like their chances, even on the road, against the Patriots on Sunday.
Chargers offensive line should be able to hold up
The Chargers, as is the case with most of the teams in the playoffs this season, have their flaws on both sides of the ball. On the offense, the offensive line has held back Jim Harbaugh and company all season long. The Chargers have lost both of their star tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, to injury this season, and have dealt with more attrition beyond that as well.
As a result, Herbert has been under siege whenever he has dropped back to pass so far this season. He has been pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks according to Next Gen Stats, the highest number in the league by a wide margin. Only Jacoby Brissett of the Arizona Cardinals also sits above 40% among qualified passers this season.
The good news for the Chargers in this matchup is that the Patriots don't get after the quarterback particularly well, especially compared to the other teams at the top of the AFC like the Jaguars and the Broncos. New England is getting pressure on just 35.9% of their opponents' dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in the league, but ranks just 20th in sack rate and 26th in total sacks.
That will be music to Herbert's ears, as the star quarterback has been excellent all season long when he has had time to operate in the pocket. When facing no pressure, Herbert has tossed 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season and has a +0.33 EPA per dropback, one of the best marks in the NFL. If he has time to operate in this game, it could be a long night for the New England defense.
The Patriots do have star defensive tackle Milton Williams back for this game after he missed most of the second half of the season, so that should help New England disrupt the pocket. However, this is the ideal matchup for the Chargers up front in these playoffs.
Patriots shouldn't be able to run the ball on Los Angeles
Jesse Minter and the Chargers excel at stopping the run and forcing opposing quarterbacks into long down-and-distances where they can cause chaos and create some turnovers. This season, Los Angeles ranks second in the NFL in EPA per rush allowed, behind only the Seattle Seahawks.
The Patriots have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but that is most thanks to the passing game and MVP contender Drake Maye. The running game has been solid, but inconsistent, with Rhamondre Stevenson seeing the majority of the reps and rookie TreVeyon Henderson getting a bigger workload as the season has gone along.
Henderson has been able to create a number of explosive runs this season, but the Pats haven't been able to get a consistent push on a down-to-down basis. New England boasts just a 40.5% rushing success rate on the season according to Next Gen Stats, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
The Chargers defense can be gettable if you can keep them in neutral situations where Minter can't sit on either the run or the pass. However, there is a world where Maye is forced into a lot of obvious passing situations if Stevenson and company can't move the ball on the ground.
Maye is good enough to overcome that, like he has time and time again this season, but it would certainly make his life much more difficult against a very good defense if he has to carry the burden of the offense for 60 minutes.
