The New England Patriots were hoping for a respectable 2025 season when they hired Mike Vrabel to serve as the team's head coach. The Bill Belichick-Tom Brady was long over and the team's fans were tired of seeing the team finish the season with back-to-back 4-13 records and out of the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 years.
Vrabel and his players got the results that owner Robert Kraft and the team's fans wanted to see — and quite a bit more. The maturation of 2nd-year quarterback Drake Maye has propelled the Patriots to the top of the AFC East, and they would have clinched the division title if they had beaten the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. While they jumped out in front and earned a 21-0 lead, they could not hold off Josh Allen and the Pats dropped a 35-31 decision.
There was no panic in the Patriots locker room after the loss. Instead, cornerback Carlton Davis said the Patriots looked at the game as a learning experience.
“That was a playoff game,” Davis said, per Chjristopher L. Gasper of the Boston Globe. “The first one, and it’s cool because it wasn’t a real playoff game. But the stakes were a playoff kind of thing. It’s good for us to learn from this and make some corrections going into this backstretch.”
Loss to Bills will not keep Patriots from winning the AFC East
The Patriots still have a 1-game lead over their division rivals and they can win the division by taking care of business and not needing help from anybody else. In addition to winning the AFC East, the Patriots are still in contention for the top seed in the AFC playoff structure and a bye in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
The Denver Broncos (12-2) are 1 game in front of the Patriots with 3 games to play, but the Broncos face a more challenging finish to their schedule than the Patriots, so it's not inconceivable that they could earn that honor.
The Patriots have road games remaining with the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets along with a home game against the Dolphins. The Patriots will be big favorites over the Jets and Dolphins, but their Sunday night game at Baltimore will be a big challenge.
The Ravens are fighting for a winning season and an opportunity to run down the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North and they are 3-point favorites over the Patriots.
Ravens are biggest challenge for Patriots
John Harbaugh's team is desperate for the win, and the Patriots will have to play their best game in order to beat the veteran Ravens on the road. In addition to Maye, the Patriots will need big performances from rookie running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson along with wide outs Stefon Diggs and Kayson Boutte along with tight end Hunter Henry. The defense will have to contain Ravens QB Lamar Jackson.
If the Patriots are able to stay close in the first half, they should be able to hang in for 60 minutes. Going 3-0 in the final 3 weeks would clearly give Vrabel's team the AFC East crown. However, even if they lose that game, they could still win the division by beating the Jets and Dolphins to close the season.
That would give them a 5-1 record against AFC East opponents, while the best the Bills could do is 4-2. Since the two teams split the season series, the division record is the next tiebreaker and that goes to the Patriots.
The Pats would need help to earn the top seed in the AFC
New England saw it's 10-game winning streak come to an end with the loss to the Bills, but the Broncos were able to extend their winning streak to 11 games when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. While head coach Sean Payton and Bo Nix clearly have talent and momentum, the closing schedule is a major challenge. The Broncos close with a home game vs. the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, a road game against the suddenly ordinary Kansas City Chiefs (without Patrick Mahomes) and a home game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
If the Patriots won all 3 games while the Broncos would lose 2 of 3, the Patriots would have a 1-game advantage in the standings and take the No. 1 spot in the AFC. However, if the teams finished tied in the standings, it would come down to record of games in common. The Broncos have the edge in that department, and that would give Payton's team the tiebreaker.
The only way the Patriots are going to get the top seed in the AFC is if they finish with the best record. Tying for the best record would not get the job done against the Broncos.
The key for the Patriots is winning the division title and winning 2 of 3 games would get the job done. If they can take all 3 and the Broncos suddenly lose 2 of 3, that would give them the top spot in the AFC playoff structure and a bye in the Wild Card round. That would be the dream scenario when the postseason gets underway.
