The Dallas Cowboys are traveling to Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, on Christmas Day to face the Washington Commanders in a Week 17 matchup that carries vastly different implications for both teams. While Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention following their recent losses, Washington still holds playoff aspirations and will be hungry to secure a win in front of their home crowd. This matchup presents an interesting dynamic where the Cowboys serve as a playoff-bound opponent, while the Commanders fight for their postseason life against an “eliminated” squad that refuses to quit.
The Cowboys come into this game as 6.5-point favorites despite their elimination from the playoff picture. Dallas lost decisively to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-17 last Sunday and has dropped three of their last four games. The Commanders, meanwhile, suffered a devastating 29-18 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, which officially clinched the NFC East title for Philadelphia and extinguished Dallas's playoff hopes.
This Christmas Day battle carries historical significance, as the Cowboys lead the all-time series against Washington 80-49-2, including victories in four of the last five matchups. Dallas dominated the Commanders 44-22 earlier this season in Week 7 at AT&T Stadium. However, context matters significantly in Week 17, and both teams will be fighting for different reasons on this holiday broadcast.
Dak Prescott Struggles in Cold-Weather Outdoor Setting
The forecast in Washington appears manageable, but this will mark Dallas's first outdoor game since their Week 9 matchup in Denver. Quarterback Dak Prescott has demonstrated notable performance variations when playing in open-air stadiums, particularly during the December season. The cold weather and outdoor conditions will present a significant adjustment for a Cowboys offense that has struggled mightily over the past month.
Prescott will have difficulty maintaining consistency against a Washington defense that will be physically engaged and motivated to upset an “eliminated” Dallas squad. The Cowboys quarterback has thrown multiple interceptions in recent games, and the pressure of playing on Christmas Day in an outdoor venue could magnify those turnover issues. Expect Prescott's completion percentage to dip below his season average, and look for the Commanders' defensive line to create havoc in the backfield throughout the afternoon.
Additionally, the Cowboys' offensive line continues to face injury concerns, leaving Prescott vulnerable to pressure in a hostile environment. This is the perfect storm for a subpar performance from Dallas's quarterback, which will be the primary factor in an upset loss.
Washington's Ground Game Controls the Line of Scrimmage
The Commanders enter this contest with renewed motivation after losing to Philadelphia in Week 16. Washington's rushing attack will be the key to a Christmas Day victory, as they commit to establishing the run early and controlling clock management throughout the game. The Cowboys' defense has struggled against quality rushing attacks this season, and the Commanders will exploit this weakness relentlessly.
Look for Washington to lean heavily on their running backs, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr., attacking downhill with authority and dictating tempo from the opening kickoff. By controlling the line of scrimmage and limiting Dallas's offensive opportunities through extended drives, the Commanders will wear down the Cowboys' defense and keep Prescott and company on the sidelines. The Commanders' offensive line will have a decisive advantage in this matchup, and the team will establish a physical presence that Dallas cannot match.
This single run by Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt that 80% of NFL RBs can make. has resulted in Bill getting drafted several of rounda earlier.
What people missed is he played late into last night's game, and didn't play all that well.pic.twitter.com/8DIHsXAj6o
— Eric Polzin (NinetoFiveSports) (@925_Sports) August 19, 2025
This ground-and-pound approach will result in the Commanders controlling over 35 minutes of possession time. Extended clock management and methodical drives will frustrate the Cowboys' pass rush and allow Washington to control the narrative of the game. Expect the Commanders to record over 150 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns on the afternoon.
A Late Fourth-Quarter Comeback Seals the Upset Victory
Despite being underdogs, the Washington Commanders will mount a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback to upset the favored Dallas Cowboys on Christmas Day. The Commanders will trail by a touchdown entering the final quarter but will orchestrate a magnificent scoring drive with less than two minutes remaining in the game to secure a dramatic victory. This will be a statement win for a Washington team fighting for its playoff future.
The Christmas Day magic will work in favor of the Commanders as the Cowboys' eliminated roster lacks the desperation and focus required to close out a game against a team with everything to play for. A late field goal or rushing touchdown in the final moments will seal an unlikely victory that shocks the sports world and reminds everyone why you never overlook a team playing at home on Christmas.
This upset victory will have significant playoff implications for Washington, positioning the Commanders for a better seed heading into the postseason. For Dallas, it will serve as a final reminder that playoff elimination doesn't mean the Cowboys have nothing to prove when facing a hungry division rival on national television.
