Let’s be honest for a moment (this shouldn’t be perceived as an overly bold prediction). The New York Knicks should get through the Indiana Pacers with ease compared to what they just went through against the Philadelphia 76ers in their first-round playoff series. The Knicks won 50 games in the regular season and secured the second seed in the Eastern Conference despite dealing with significant injuries to a number of starters. Still, it’s the NBA playoffs and anything can happen, so let's make some real bold Knicks predictions for the 2024 Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. the Pacers.
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Recent history between the Knicks and Pacers
The Knicks and Pacers almost played each other at full strength this season. Almost.
They played three times, with the Pacers winning two of the three games. Their first matchup on December 30 was played without OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa, as well as RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, as it took place just before all players involved in the trade joined their new teams. So, instead of being the first test for a re-tooled Knicks team, New York lost to the Pacers 140-126 with a depleted roster.
They also played on February 1, just five days after Anunoby and Julius Randle went down with respective injuries. Incidentally, the Knicks won that particular matchup, but it did nothing to prepare Indiana for the current iteration of the Knicks team.
The final matchup between New York and Indiana on February 10 was toward the beginning of a dark period for the Knicks in which they were not only without Randle and Anunoby, but they also had Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Brunson also miss time.
So, let’s make some bold predictions regarding why New York should have a relatively easy path to their first conference finals in more than 20 years.
OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson will trip up the Pacers’ offense
There’s a lot to be said for Anunoby and how he’s impacted the Knicks. They’re flat-out better after adding him. Including the playoffs, New York is 24-5 since adding Anunoby. And Anunoby was +353 through 23 regular season games. He has demonstrated incredible defensive versatility since joining the Knicks; however, he showed off a new level of offensive aggression in the first-round matchup with the 76ers.
Indiana really doesn’t know what they're in for with Anunoby. But there’s someone else who’s been missing in each of the Knicks-Pacers matchups who can impact the game about as much, Mitchell Robinson.
Robinson was playing at a border-line All-Star level before injuring his ankle in December. He was leading the league in offensive rebounds (by a lot), and putting up 6.2 points and a career-high 10.3 total rebounds per game. Then he ended up missing three-and-a-half months due to ankle surgery.
Since returning, and especially in the team’s first-round matchup with the 76ers, Robinson has looked like an absolute monster. Despite playing only about 20 minutes per game and missing an entire game due to a separate ankle injury, Robinson was tied (with Josh Hart) for the NBA lead in offensive rebounds through the first round, grabbing 22 in total. He also collected seven blocks.
There’s also the intangibles. Like his willingness to accept a reserve role when he was previously the team’s starter. And his willingness to do the dirty work like fight to the floor for rebounds and bang with the bigger Joel Embiid. Despite having recently returned from a fairly long absence, Robinson was actually more successful than any other Knick at slowing down Embiid.
To be fair, Indiana played at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season, whereas New York played at the slowest pace in the league. So, it would have been difficult for the Knicks to keep up, even if they were entirely healthy. But they’re not. And losing Bojan Bogdanovic to an ankle injury that required surgery in the first round hurts even more given that the Knicks are currently down to a seven-man rotation.
Still, the Pacers will struggle to score against the Knicks' stout defense. This one will end up looking a lot like the Knicks-76ers matchup, at least in terms of scoring. New York will hold the Pacers below their scoring average, and that will drive a lot of their success.
Knicks rebounders will generate second-chance points, and lead to victories
The Knicks’ rebounding prowess is nothing new. But examining team rebounding in the playoffs through only one round is tricky given that results are very much predicated on your opponent. But looking at the results of an 82-game season is most certainly statistically significant. And this is an area in which the Knicks have a major advantage. New York was the fifth-best rebounding team this season, while Indiana was 28th.
Furthermore, New York led the league in offense rebounds this season, too. And that trend was highlighted time and again in their first-round playoff series. In other words, the Pacers will have to work diligently to keep New York from generating second (and third) possessions and dominating through second-chance buckets.
But keeping any team off the glass is easier said than done, especially when we’re dealing with dawgs like Josh Hart, Hartenstein, and Robinson. The Knicks will win the rebounding battle against Indiana. And as we know, the team that won the rebounding battle in each of the Knicks’ first-round games emerged victorious.
Ultimately, the Knicks are just a little too deep and physical. They rebound the ball and defend too well for Indiana to realistically win four of seven games — but the Knicks must slow the pace of the game. The addition of Pascal Siakam was an interesting move at the 2024 trade deadline. But the Knicks are just a little too much for the Pacers to handle. Knicks in six.
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