It is a rematch of an earlier season contest as Tulane visits Ole Miss in the first round of the College Football Playoff. As Tulane looks to pull the upset in the first round, it is time to make three bold predictions on the game.
Tulane has a new head coach as Jon Sumrall has accepted the job at Florida. He will still be coaching the playoffs for Tulane, but the dual roles could lead to some distraction. Regardless, the team is prepared for this first-round game. The Green Wave is 11-2 on the season. They opened up season 3-0 with wins over Northwestern, South Alabama, and Duke before a 45-10 loss to Ole Miss. They would then win three more before a loss in conference play on the road, falling to UTSA 48-26. The team would then win four straight to end the regular season, before facing North Texas in the American Conference Championship. Tulane dominated the game, leading 24-7 at the end of the first half, and going on to win 34-21.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has been the hotbed of drama recently. It started with Lane Kiffin leaving the program, and Pete Golding taking over for Lane Kiffin. Multiple coaches have decided to join Kiffin at LSU, while some of the former LSU staff are heading to Ole Miss. Ole Miss is 11-1 on the season. They opened up the season 6-0, with wins over Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU. That also included a tight win over Washington State, in which they won by just three points. After the game against the Cougars, the team would lose their only game of the season on the road aganst Georgia, losing 43-35. They have since won five straight games, including a win over Oklahoma and their rival, Mississippi State. The team missed out on the SEC Championship, but that may be a blessing in disguise as they got rest following the game with Mississippi State.
In the first game with Ole Miss, Tulane struggled. They were down by 20 at the end of the first half, as Ole Miss consistently converted third downs. Tulane scored in the second half, but would still fall 45-10.
Jake Retzlaff plays much better
The Tulane offense has been good this year, but not one of the best in the nation. They are 43rd in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. The Green Wave is 50th in the run and 51st in passing yards per game. This all starts with BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff. He has passed for 2,862 yards this year with 14 touchdowns. He has thrown six interceptions, though. Meanwhile, he has been great on the ground, running for 610 yards and finding the end zone 16 times.
Retzlaff struggled in the first game against Ole Miss, having his worst game of the season. He completed just five of 17 passes for 56 yards. He was not sacked, and did not find a lot of pressure either, running eight times for 51 yards. Still, the Ole Miss secondary confused the quarterback, and he was unable to find targets in the game. Still, the quarterback has shown he can be a solid playmaker. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six games this year, all of them since the loss to Ole Miss. While he has not had a touchdown pass in the last two games, he has run for four scores.
Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense has been good. They are 36th in FBS in opponent points per game and 45th in opponent yards per game. Against the run, the team is 41st, but also ranks 27th agaisnt the pass. Ole Miss has not been great at forcing turnovers, with just .9 takeaways per game, but they do have seven interceptions this year. This is led by safety Wydett Williams Jr., who has three. Retzlaff will not be able to pick apart this Ole Miss defense, but he has grown in the system since the loss to the Rebels. He will throw for over 150 yards while also scoring once on the ground.
Trinidad Chambliss controls the game
Ole Miss has been one of the best offensive units in the nation this year. They are 12th in points per game while also third in yards per game. The Revels are 21st in the run game while sitting sixth in the pass. Trinidad Chambliss got his first start of the season the week before Tulane, taking over the job from an injured Austin Simmons. He did not let the job go. This season, he has been dominant, earning Chambliss some Heisman votes. He has thrown for 3,016 yards and 18 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Meanwhile, he has run for 470 yards and six scores.
The Ole Miss quarterback was great in his first game against Tulane. He completed 17 of 27 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns while also running for 112 yards. Since then, Chambliss has become a better passer and has relied less on the ground game to make plays.
The Tulane defense is also not amazing. They are just 42nd in opponent points per game and 63rd in opponent yards per game. Still, they have improved agaisnt the run, and finished the season 29th against the run, but also 118th against the pass. Tulane has not allowed a quarterback or running back to run the way Chambliss did the first time, and will not in this one. Still, the Ole Miss quarterback has changed his game and is a better passer now. It will be at least 250 yards through the air and two touchdowns for the QB.
Distractions are not an issue for Ole Miss
The Ole Miss situation is messy. Kiffin left for LSU, bringing coaches with him. Meanwhile, former LSU coaches are heading to Ole Miss. There are a ton of distractions off the field for the Rebels. Tulane is not completely immune to the situation, with Sumrall leaving for Florida and other coaches leaving as well, and a new staff coming in. Last time the two teams played, the Rebels dominated this down. They converted on seven of 11 third-down attempts, and it is an area the team has been solid in all season. They finished the season 27th in third down conversions and 49th on defense. Meanwhile, Tulane has continued to struggle on defense, sitting 73rd, but has been better offensively, converting 42.35 percent of the time, good for 41st in FBS.
The only way for Tulane to keep this close is the turnover game. Tulane had 1.8 turnovers per game this year, which was 15th in FBS. The team was also 12th in turnover margin per game this year. The turnover margin was even in the first game, with both teams turning over the ball once. Even if Tulane makes another turnover, and it creates a 14-point swing, the game is not close. That still leads to an over 20-point victory for Ole Miss, something that will be the same in this game as the Rebels get their shot at Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
