When the Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament, many began to believe in their chances of winning another title with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, the start of 2024 was not kind to the Lakers, and they began to sink in the Western Conference standings.
While they seem to have found their groove as of late, winning nine of their last 12 games, the Lakers' back-to-back losses have thrown a wrench in their playoff scenario plans. After losing to the Golden State Warriors earlier this week, the Lakers no longer control their own playoff destiny in the play-in region of the standings.
Currently 45-35 on the season, the Lakers have clinched their play-in spot. Where they will end up in the standings and who they will ultimately play remains a mystery that won't be solved until the final day of the regular season despite all 30 teams in the league playing games on Friday.
The thing about the Lakers and all the scenarios they face in this year's play-in tournament is that, even if they win their final two games, there is no guarantee that they can move out of the 10-seed spot. This is due to the fact that Los Angeles is going to need some help from other teams.
The New Orleans Pelicans are currently the 6 seed in the West, yet they lead the No. 7 Phoenix Suns by just one game. Then, the Suns lead the Sacramento Kings, Warriors, and Lakers by two games, as all three teams are bunched up and tied for the 8 seed. Between tiebreakers and head-to-head matchups, the West standings are going to be very messy as the Lakers finish their season.
No matter where the Lakers end up, they could be a dangerous team with James and Davis healthy. Nobody is going to want to play the Lakers in the playoffs, but whether or not they can actually make the playoffs, seeing as they are in danger of being a part of a winner-take-all 9-seed vs. 10-seed game, is the ultimate question.
Here is a full breakdown of all the possible scenarios that could play out for the Lakers ahead of the end of the season.
Lakers' outside chance at 7 seed
What needs to happen:
- LAL must win final two games against MEM and NOP.
- PHX must lose final two games against SAC and MIN.
- SAC must defeat PHX but lose to POR.
- GSW must lose one of two remaining games against NOP and UTA.
Although this is a very straight-forward scenario for the Lakers, it is very hard to envision them being able to pull this off. A win over the Memphis Grizzlies seems likely for Los Angeles on Friday, but the Pelicans are still fighting for their playoff lives.
A loss to the Warriors on Friday would put New Orleans in a situation where they would need to win their final game of the season against the Lakers to try and avoid the play-in tournament.
In the event that the Lakers do pull out two victories, including one over the Pelicans, the next order of business pertains to the Phoenix Suns.
While they have two tough matchups against a Kings team needing a win and the potential 1-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, the Suns are battling with the Pelicans to try and avoid the play-in tournament. It is unrealistic to think that they will drop both of these games, but crazier things have happened before.
Should these two things play out, the Lakers would then need to see the Kings lose their final game of the year to the Portland Trail Blazers. Out of all the scenarios and hypotheticals here, this is the least likely to happen simply because Portland has won six games since the start of February.
To make matters worse for the Lakers, Sacramento is set to host the Blazers in this final game, giving the Kings the advantage they need to pull out a victory.
The last thing the Lakers would need to grab the 7 seed is two losses by the Warriors, who have won nine of their last 10 games.
Los Angeles owns the tiebreaker over Phoenix, which would be utilized in this scenario, but the Kings and Warriors both own individual tiebreakers over the Lakers. This is why it would be extremely difficult for the Lakers to have everything play out just the way they would need it to for the 7 seed.
How Lakers can jump Kings, Warriors for 8 seed
Lakers' scenarios for 8 seed:
- LAL wins final two games against MEM, NOP | SAC lose one of final two games against PHX, POR | GSW lose one of final two games against NOP, UTA.
- LAL wins one of final two games against MEM, NOP | SAC loses final two games against PHX, POR | GSW lose final two games against NOP, UTA.
Much like the 7-seed scenario, the Lakers would really need some magic to wiggle their way up to the 8-seed given that the Kings and Warriors both own the season tiebreaker due to their head-to-head record against Los Angeles. Right now, the main goal for the Lakers is to win their final two games.
If the Lakers can defeat the Grizzlies on Friday followed by the Pelicans on Sunday, that creates opportunity and puts pressure on both the Kings and Warriors to not drop a game since all three teams are tied at 45-35 in the standings.
Closing out the season with two-straight wins is really the only chance the Lakers have to potentially move up to the 8 seed as the Kings and Warriors each losing their final two games is extremely unlikely to happen.
It is much more likely that the Kings and Warriors each go 1-1 to finish the year. The Warriors could drop Friday night's game to the Pelicans, and the Kings have a tough matchup against the Suns. Should both of these teams lose on Friday and the Lakers pull out a win against a banged-up Grizzlies team, all of a sudden, Los Angeles would control their own destiny for the 8 seed entering the final day of the regular season.
Lakers' odds for 9 seed
Lakers' scenarios for 9-seed:
- LAL wins final two games against MEM, NOP | One of SAC/GSW to finish the season 1-1.
- LAL wins one of final two games against MEM, NOP | One of SAC/GSW to finish the season 0-2.
The Lakers' path to the 9 seed is very similar to that of the 8 seed, except the one difference is that they only need to depend on either the Warriors or Kings to lose as opposed to both teams losing.
If the Lakers defeat the Grizzlies and Pelicans, then they would need the Kings or Warriors to lose a game. Should the Kings and Warriors both lose a game to finish the year after the Lakers win both of their games, Los Angeles would move up to the 8 seed. However, if the Lakers go 2-0 and either the Kings or Warriors go 1-1, then the Lakers claim the 9 seed.
Should the Lakers go 1-1, then they will need either the Kings or Warriors to go 0-2 to finish the season in order to claim the 9 seed. There are no other scenarios in which the Lakers can move up one spot to host the 9-seed vs. 10-seed game.
Lakers claim 10 seed in play-in tournament
At this point, the Lakers are locked into the 10 seed should the chalk hold. The Kings can likely handle their business against the Suns and Blazers, plus the Warriors are looking to finish the season strong with wins over the Pelicans and Jazz.
Assuming Sacramento and Golden State handle their business, the West standings will remain the same with the Lakers as the 10 seed. Whether or not the Kings or Warriors would move up depends on what happens with the Suns at the 7 seed.
The Lakers losing to the Warriors in the final week of the season has really doomed them in terms of controlling their own destiny. Now they are going to need a little bit of help if they want to move up. Nonetheless, winning is the only thing that matters for LeBron and the Lakers right now, especially when next week's play-in tournament begins.
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