The NFL continues its holiday weekend slate with two Saturday games. The opening game has the Houston Texans facing off with the Los Angeles Chargers. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Texans-Chargers prediction and pick.
The Houston Texans come into the game at 10-5. They struggled to start the season, opening up 0-3 before defeating the Tennessee Titans 26-0 for their first win of the season. They would fall to 3-5 after a loss to the Denver Broncos. Since the loss, the Texans have won seven straight games and are in a position to clinch a playoff spot. Houston will clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win over the Chargers or a loss by the Indianapolis Colts.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are 11-4 this season. They opened up 3-0 with wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, and Denver Broncos. They would lose three of their next four games, but have been dominating since then. The Chargers have won seven of the last eight games, with the only loss being to the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the process, the Chargers have clinched a playoff spot. They are a game out in the AFC West, but if the Chargers win out, they will win the division and could have a shot at the first-round bye.
The Chargers and Texans last faced off in the playoffs last year. In that game, the Chargers fell 32-12.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Texans vs. Chargers Odds
Texans: +2.5 (-115)
Chargers: -2.5 (-105)
Over: 39.5 (-108)
Under: 39.5 (-112)
Texans vs. Chargers Key Injuries
Texans- CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Oblique-Questionable), OT Trent Brown (Hand/Ankle/Knee – Questionable), OT Aireontae Ersery (Thumb- Questionable), CB Kamari Lassiter (Foot- Questionable), DE Denico Autry (Knee- Questionable), Dl Sheldon Rankings (Elbow- Questionable), LB Jake Hanson (Chest- Questionable), DE Dylan Horton (Hip- Questionable), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Ankle- Questionable), TE Dalton Shultz (Knee- Questionable), CB Ajani Carter (Hamstring- Questionable)
Chargers- G Mekhi Becton (Knee- Questionable). RB Kimani Vidal (Neck- Questionable), OL Jamaree Salyer (Hamstring- Questionable), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Shoulder- Questionable), S RJ Mickens (Shoulder- Questionable), WR Derius Davis (Ankle- Questionable), DL Teair Tart (Groin- Questionable), OLB Bud Dupree (Back- Questionable)
Texans vs. Chargers Betting Trends
– The Texans are 8-7 against the spread and 3-4 ATS on the road this season.
– The Chargers are 8-6-1 against the spread, while also going 4-2-1 against the spread at home this year.
– As an underdog this season, the Texans are 3-3 against the spread. They have won the game every time they covered as an underdog.
– As a favorite, the Chargers are 4-6-1 against the spread.
– The over is 5-9-1 in Lions games this year, and has been the right side in each of the last two.
– The under has hit in seven games for the Chargers this year. The under is also 4-1-1 in the last six games.
Keys to Texans vs. Chargers Matchup
The primary key for the Texans in this game is going to be the play of quarterback CJ Stroud. The Texans' offense is 19th in the NFL in points per game while sitting 19th in yards per game. They are 23rd in the running game, while also sitting 16th in the passing game. Stroud has been solid this year, passing for 2,628 yards and 16 touchdowns. Further, he has thrown just six interceptions. Interceptions will be key in this game. Stroud has thrown interceptions in five games this year, and the team has lost three of those five games.
The Chargers have been great on defense this year. They are eighth in the NFL in opponent points per game while sitting third in opponent yards per game. Further, they are 10th against the run and sixth against the pass. The Chargers are also second in the NFL in interception percentage. This is led by Donte Jackson, who has 12 pass breakups plus four interceptions this season.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are going to need to have a solid running game in this contest. The offense has been middle of the road this year, sitting 16th in the NFL in points per game and 11th in yards per game. They are sixth in the run and 13th in the pass so far this year. Kimani Vidal has been solid this year, running for 631 yards and three scores. Still, he is questionable for the game, which would give more play to Omarion Hampton. The rookie running back has rushed for 516 yards and three scores. Quarterback Justin Herbert has also been solid on the ground. While he has passed for 3,491 yards and 25 touchdowns, he has also run for 461 yards and two scores.
Herbert and the Chargers are facing a stiff test against the Texans. Houston is first in opponent points per game while also sitting first in opponent yards per game. They are also fourth against the run and fifth against the pass. Will Anderson Jr. will play a major role in slowing down the Chargers' offense. He has 11.5 sacks this year while leading the team with 17 tackles for a loss. Further, he has three pass breakups, three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and a defensive touchdown.
Texans vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick
Both teams come into this game playing well. The Texans have won seven straight games, while the Chargers are peaking at the right time. They have won seven of their last eight games. Red zone scoring is going to play a major role in this game. The Texans are 31st in red zone scoring on offense, and the weakest part of their defense has been in the red zone, sitting 23rd. The Chargers are 27th in red zone scoring, while sitting fourth on defense. Further, the Chargers have also been amazing on third down. They are third in third-down conversion while also sixth in opponent third-down conversions. The Texans are 20th in third-down conversions, but third on defense. With those two factors, the Chargers will be able to move the ball and keep the Texans off the field. That will give them the win in a lower-scoring contest.
Final Texans vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-105) and Under 39.5 (-112)
