Current Baltimore Orioles closer Craig Kimbrel will go down as one of the better closers in MLB history when it's all said and done. But he looks anything but that in his first season with the O's.
Kimbrel came to the Orioles this season, having to replace last year's Felix Bautista, who dominated. The 28-year-old Bautista was off to one of the best seasons for any relief pitcher, with an 8-2 record, 1.48 ERA, and 110 strikeouts in 61 innings pitched. But then he went down in August with an elbow injury that later required Tommy John surgery.
Kimbrel, 35, is now in his 15th major league season and playing for his eighth team after signing with the Orioles in the offseason to be Bautista's replacement on a one-year, $13 million deal. He has a career 2.44 ERA and 425 saves, which is tied with current Boston Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen for the fifth-most of all time. But those saves aren't piling up like they used to, nor is the ERA dropping.
Craig Kimbrel's last two weeks with the Orioles have been a disaster
In his last five appearances, Craig Kimbrel has just one save. In 19 batters faced, he's given up six hits, six earned runs, seven walks, two homers, and struck out seven, with a 23.14 ERA and FIP of 23.14 in that span.
“We’re going to stick with him,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said, via the AP. “This guy’s got a big-time track record. He’s a Hall of Famer, and we need to get him right,” Hyde said. “It’s important that we get him right.”
This was after two straight outings by the veteran pitcher in which he was pulled in the ninth inning, giving up a combined three hits and three earned runs, one being a homer, in the finale against the Cincinnati Reds and the opener against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday.
For the season, Kimbrel is now 3-1, with eight saves, three blown saves, and two holds. His ERA continues to skyrocket, though, now at 4.73. He has 21 strikeouts and nine walks. But his two homers allowed, along with the nine walks, all came within the last two weeks. Until April 22, the day he allowed his first walk of the season, Kimbrel had given up only three hits, one earned run, had 14 strikeouts and held a 1.00 ERA.
Kimbrel has always had some nasty stuff to throw at opposing hitters. He still has his usual upper 90s fastball, along with his nasty breaking ball. But both of those pitches lack their effectiveness without solid command. To close baseball games, you have to throw strikes, and Kimbrel just isn't doing that enough. His strikes thrown are down to 58 percent. He's losing any and all value to his pitches.
For instance, Kimbrel's fastball runs above average is setting at a -1.6, while his breaking ball is at 0.1, both below average, per FanGraphs. Those numbers not only indicate the value of one pitch but all the other pitches a pitcher throws, meaning that Kimbrel's fastball and its effectiveness are dependent on that of his other pitches, namely his breaking ball.
Craig Kimbrel's pitching woes following him from last season
Of course, these problems have been following Kimbrel since last season when he was with the Philadelphia Phillies. During the Phillies' postseason run last year, Kimbrel was hardly effective; in fact, he was downright abysmal. In four appearances during the playoffs, he went 0-2, giving up four earned runs in three innings pitched, finishing with an ERA of 12.00. Now that version of Kimbrel seems to have resurfaced.
As good as the Orioles are with their offense, often getting them out of trouble late in games, the team can ill-afford to rely on that method for the entirety of a season, or better yet, the playoffs. The New York Yankees, their AL East rival, are now a problem for the Orioles, who are currently tied with them for first in the division. Not that there's ever an easy answer for facing the likes of a Juan Soto or Aaron Judge in the bottom of the ninth, but Baltimore still needs to avoid Philadelphia's mistakes from last year. That may require taking Kimbrel out of the closer role.
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