The time has come and the Main Event of UFC St. Louis is finally here. We'll be bringing you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming headliner bout featuring two ranked monsters in the Heavyweight Division. No. 12-ranked Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis will defend his position against No. 15-ranked Rodrigo Nascimento of Brazil. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lewis-Nascimento prediction and pick.

Derrick Lewis (27-12) has gone 18-10 in a decade fighting under the UFC banner. Lewis has stumbled a bit recently and dropped four of his last five fights to the top fights in the division. Two fights ago, he landed a stunning flying knee knockout against Marcos de Lima and was able to take Jailton Almeida the distance in his last bout. He comes in as the favorite headlining yet another Main Event. Lewis stands 6'3″ with a 79-inch reach.

Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1) has gone 4-1-0-1 in the UFC since 2020 and he's had a quick rise through the rankings, notching three-straight victories leading up to this bout. He's taken down Tanner Boser, Ilir Latifi, and Don'Tale Mayes all by decision and he'll be looking to do the same against the toughest opponent of his career. Nascimento stands 6'2″ with an 80-inch reach.

Here are the UFC St. Louis Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC St. Louis Odds: Derrick Lewis-Rodrigo Nascimento Odds

Derrick Lewis: -170

Rodrigo Nascimento: +145

Over 1.5 rounds: +120

Under 1.5 rounds: -150

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Why Derrick Lewis Will Win

Derrick Lewis will be headlining another UFC Fight Night and fans couldn't be happier, even knowing Derrick Lewis is probably dreading the thought of another five-round fight. He's been vocal to the UFC about scheduling him for three-rounders, so there might be a feeling that Lewis will try to finish this fight early. He'll once again be tasked with a grappler and submission specialist. Lewis is no stranger to facing some of the best wrestlers in the division and anticipating their plans to take him down (see Lewis vs. Blaydes). He'll have to approach this fight the same way and work to get back to his feet whenever he finds himself on the ground.

Still, Derrick Lewis will have the great equalizer in this fight with his one-punch knockout power. Marcos Rogerio de Lima suffered a similar fate as Curtis Blaydes when Lewis elevated for a flying knee to counter the takedown attempt. Both fights resulted in brutal knockouts and given the size of Nascimento, Lewis should be able to time his movements rather easily. Look for Lewis to slowly size Nascimento up through the opening round as he opens up with big strikes on his entries.

Why Rodrigo Nascimento Will Win

Rodrigo Nascimento has been a tough puzzle for heavyweights to solve as he's been successful in implementing his suffocating wrestling and grappling. He also has a very technical striking game, landing over four strikes per minute and fighting behind 43% defensive rate. In boxing range, Nascimento does a great job of keeping his hands moving and finding his opponent's chin from close angles. He has the wrestling in his back pocket and with six wins by submission on his resume, he could be looking to take this fight to the ground for an early finish.

Rodrigo Nascimento will not be able to force the takedown during this fight as the consequences of any mistake are too costly against a knockout artist like Lewis. Nascimento has the reach to keep this fight at range and his quick entries are enough to stun Lewis before he's able to get a shot of his own. If Nascimento can be the faster fighter on his feet and cut creative angles in getting to Lewis' chin, he could be able to get the upset win behind a technical kickboxing performance.

Final Derrick Lewis-Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction & Pick

This should be an interesting Main Event as we have Derrick Lewis welcoming Rodrigo Nascimento to his first five-round fight. While Lewis may not be planning to go all five rounds, it'll be interesting to see how Nascimento handles his first Main Event and if there's any jitters that comes with it.

Derrick Lewis will win this fight if it remains on the feet. He's too vicious of a puncher for his strikes not to do damage and we haven't really seen Nascimento take a ton of damage in his fights up to this point. Lewis will also be aware of the takedowns coming his way and will be marching to close the distance if he sees a way to end this fight.

Rodrigo Nascimento presents a unique challenge to Lewis with his abilities to be successful both on his feet and on the ground. Grappling with Lewis may be an easier path to victory, but he'll need to first gain his respect on the feet with his active boxing combinations.

For our prediction, we'll have to roll with Derrick Lewis to get the win as the favorite. I think he'll be intent on keeping this fight standing and giving himself a chance for another knockout. This fight hinges on whether Lewis can find Nascimento's chin – otherwise, it may be worth taking a look at Nascimento's prop to win by submission. For this prediction, we'll ride with Derrick Lewis to get the win.

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Final Derrick Lewis-Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction & Pick: Derrick Lewis (-170)